The Southwestern Athletic Conference men’s basketball meeting between Alabama State and Texas Southern on Tuesday afternoon brings together two programs looking to gain traction as league play moves deeper into January. Both of these teams are probably better than their records would indicate after facing tough non-conference schedules. But only one of these SWAC squads will get a win in this Tuesday matinee. Find out who I think it will be below, as I make my Alabama State vs Texas Southern prediction.
Our Alabama State vs Texas Southern Pick
Pick:
Texas Southern ML ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Alabama State Hornets @ Texas Southern Tigers
Date & Time: January 27, 2026, 2:00 PM ET
Venue: H and PE Arena, Houston, Texas
Key Storylines
Alabama State offense: Guard Asjon Anderson has been the engine for the Hornets offensively, averaging close to 18 points per game while handling a large share of the offensive workload. His ability to create off the dribble has been critical in conference games.
Supporting cast growth: Micah Simpson has provided steady secondary scoring and perimeter shooting, giving Alabama State better balance than they had earlier in the season. Key role players tend to emerge in conference play for SWAC teams, as most of them play brutal non-conference slates. If that trend continues, Alabama State could be a dangerous team as the year progresses.
Texas Southern consistency issues: The Tigers have dropped 13 of their last 16 games, but their three wins over that span have come in their last four games. Interior scorer Troy Hupstead remains productive, particularly on the glass, but perimeter scoring has been uneven and the guards for the Tigers will need to provide Hupstead with some support.
Conference standings: Both teams sit near the middle of the SWAC standings, with both teams entering this game within a game of the .500 mark in conference play. Games like this one are so important to conference tournament seeding later in the year and that will be something to keep in mind throughout this contest.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Texas Southern is 42-25 all-time against Alabama State.
Texas Southern is 3-13 against the spread this season, the worst number in Division I men's basketball.
Alabama State is 8-10 against the spread going into this game.
The over is 9-7 in Texas Southern games this year.
Alabama State has stayed under the total in 10 of its first 18 games.
Alabama State vs Texas Southern Model Projection
Score Projection: Alabama State 74 – Texas Southern 76 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Alabama State 47%, Texas Southern 53% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
I am going to take Texas Southern to win outright as a slight underdog at home on Tuesday afternoon. The Tigers are starting to turn their season around with their recent play, winning three out of their last four games. Expect the Tigers' momentum to continue with a win here, as they will get back to the .500 mark in the SWAC.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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