The Boise State Broncos and Butler Bulldogs will meet in a non-conference matchup in college basketball on Saturday. Boise State is making its first true road trip of 2025-26, and Butler is hoping to stay unbeaten at home so far this college basketball season. Here, I break down this matchup between teams from the Mountain West and Big East, and you can continue reading to find my Boise State vs Butler prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Boise State vs Butler Pick
Pick: Butler Bulldogs –5.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boise State Broncos @ Butler Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: TNT / truTV
Key Storylines
- Butler’s home dominance: The Bulldogs are 5-0 at home this season and have a 7-1 record overall. Their offense ranks among the most efficient in the early season, averaging 90.0 points per game while shooting 50.2% from the floor. The comfort of Hinkle Fieldhouse and a supportive home crowd cannot be understated as the Bulldogs look to continue their strong start.
- Boise State’s first road test: The Broncos are 5-3 overall and had spent the season largely at neutral sites until this trip. Transitioning to hostile road environments often exposes weaknesses within a team. Boise State collects plenty of offensive rebounds (about 10.3 per game), but playing on the road against a physical opponent could limit second-chance opportunities.
- Butler’s offensive firepower: Finley Bizjack has emerged as the go-to scorer for Butler, coming off a 29-point effort in their most recent outing. Bizjack is shooting over 50% from the field this season and averaging 19.0 points per contest. Combined with senior forward Michael Ajayi’s inside presence and rebounding, Butler looks well-balanced heading into this home game.
- Boise State’s balanced attack: The Broncos are not a one-man show. Andrew Meadow leads them with 13.6 ppg, supported by Buchanan, Drew Fielder, and transfers such as Dylan Andrews. They are all averaging double figures. Their defense remains among the better squads nationally in efficiency, which could help them keep things close.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This will be the first time Boise State and Butler meet on either team’s home floor. Their prior two meetings were at neutral sites. Butler won the first (70-56 in 2023), and Boise State took the second (100-93 in the 2025 College Basketball Crown).
- Butler has been dominant at home in non-conference play long-term. They are 87-5 in their last 92 home games against non-conference teams. Head coach Thad Matta is 29-4 at Hinkle against non-conference foes since his return.
- Butler is 7-1 against the spread to start this season.
- Ohio State is 3-4 against the spread coming into this contest.
Boise State vs Butler Model Projection
Score Projection: Boise State 74 – Butler 82
Win Probability: Boise State 32%, Butler 68%
Final Thoughts
Given Butler’s red-hot start, home-court advantage, and their offensive firepower, the Bulldogs look like the safer play in this matchup. Boise State should struggle in its first true road game of the year and I recommend laying the points with the Bulldogs out of the Big East here.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
