Two fast-paced Big 12 offenses square off in Stillwater with No. 13 BYU visiting Oklahoma State just 48 hours after both clubs played high-profile league games. BYU is coming off two straight losses to elite opponents in Arizona and Kansas, while Oklahoma State snapped a two-game losing streak with a win in its last game. Here, I break down this matchup in college basketball and you can find my BYU vs Oklahoma State prediction below.
Our BYU vs Oklahoma State Pick
Pick: BYU -7.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 4, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Form and records: BYU enters at 17-4 overall with an 8-13 ATS mark. Oklahoma State sits at 15-6 with a 10-11 ATS record. BYU is 2-2 away from home, while Oklahoma State is 12-2 at Gallagher-Iba.
Star power: BYU’s AJ Dybantsa averages 23.3 PPG, while guard Robert Wright III dishes 5.2 APG. Oklahoma State counters with Anthony Roy at 17.5 PPG, while big man Parsa Fallah leads them on the glass at 6.3 RPG.
Team profiles: BYU averages 86.4 PPG on 48% shooting with 40.0 RPG. Oklahoma State is at 85.9 PPG on 47% with 38.3 RPG.
Recent results of note: BYU pushed top-ranked Arizona in an 83-86 thriller on January 26 before losing to Kansas. Oklahoma State is coming off a road win over Utah, highlighted by Roy’s 26-point burst. OK State returns home, where its offense has been far more comfortable.
Both teams are well off the pace of undefeated Arizona in the Big 12 standings. The objective from here is for both teams to simply secure the best seeding they can for the upcoming Big 12 tournament.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
BYU has won the last two meetings between these teams.
Home/road splits: BYU is 2-2 away from home this season and Oklahoma State is 12-2 at home.
The under is 11-10 in Oklahoma State's games so far this season.
BYU has also stayed under the total in 11 of their first 21 games.
BYU vs Oklahoma State Model Projection
Score Projection: BYU 82 – Oklahoma State 74
Win Probability: BYU 62%, Oklahoma State 38%
Final Thoughts
BYU’s more complete offense, cleaner assist-to-shot profile, and superior rebounding rates make the Cougars the right pick to survive a tricky road test. Oklahoma State’s shooters can keep this close in spurts, but BYU’s inside-out scoring and late-game execution give them multiple ways to finish possessions. I'm laying the points with BYU here, as I don't hold their two straight losses against them given how good their competition was during that span.
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