Colorado heads to Ames for a Big 12 road test against the Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday night. The Cyclones are huge favorites going into this game, as they look to pick up a third straight win and remain undefeated at home for the year. Can Colorado put a scare into a top-10 opponent here, or will Iowa State roll at Hilton Coliseum? Continue reading for my breakdown of this Big 12 contest, including my Colorado vs Iowa State prediction in college hoops.
Our Colorado vs Iowa State Pick
Pick: Iowa State -17.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Colorado Buffaloes @ Iowa State Cyclones
Date & Time: Thursday, January 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Venue: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Iowa State is 18-2 overall, 5-2 in Big 12 play, and 11-0 at home. The Cyclones have stacked up wins with a defense holding opponents to 64.9 points per game and an offense averaging just under 86 points per game.
Colorado sits 12-8 and 2-5 in the Big 12. The Buffaloes have dropped five straight games and are in the midst of a tough stretch, highlighted by a 95-86 setback to UCF last time out.
Milan Momcilovic leads Iowa State at 18.8 points per game, with Tamin Lipsey as the Cyclones' lead playmaker with over five assists per game. For Colorado, Isaiah Johnson tops the scoring charts with 16.2 points per game. He will try to spark an upset in Colorado's favor here.
Availability note to monitor: Xzavion Mitchell did not play in Iowa State's win over Oklahoma State and that is something to monitor entering Thursday night.
Key players to watch
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State forward: Efficient shooting splits and gravity that opens driving lanes for his teammates.
Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State guard: Table-setter at 5.4 assists per game and a top-of-the-line ballhawk who can create turnovers from opposing guards.
Isaiah Johnson, Colorado guard: The late-clock creator the Buffs need in a loud environment, Johnson will need to be great for Colorado to have a chance here.
Bangot Dak, Colorado big: Dak is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game, and is the interior presence tasked with limiting second chances.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Iowa State is 81-70 all-time against Colorado.
The Cyclones have won four straight matchups between these teams.
Iowa State has won three straight meetings with Colorado by double-digits.
Colorado is 9-11 against the spread this season.
Iowa State enters this game at 11-8-1 against the spread.
The Buffaloes are 10-10 in the over/under market this year.
Iowa State is 9-11 in the over/under market, favoring the under slightly.
Colorado vs Iowa State Model Projection
Score Projection: Colorado 61 – Iowa State 82
Win Probability: Colorado 13%, Iowa State 87%
Final Thoughts
The question in games involving teams with huge point spreads is usually whether or not the favorite can get enough stops to win big. But Iowa State’s perfect home record, superior defensive metrics, and deeper roster should alleviate those concerns. I'm going to lay the points with the Cyclones in this contest, as my model makes this a game that will be decided by somewhere around 20 points.
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