On Friday, the Colorado State Rams travel to ExtraMile Arena in Boise to take on the Boise State Broncos in a Mountain West Conference game that both teams will be desperate to win. Both teams are under the .500 mark in conference play this season and need to start turning things around to avoid falling too far behind the league's leaders. Here, I break down this MWC matchup and give you my Colorado State vs Boise State prediction in college hoops.
Our Colorado State vs Boise State Pick
Pick:
Colorado State +5.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Colorado State Rams @ Boise State Broncos
Date & Time: January 16, 2026, 10:30 PM ET
Venue: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Key Storylines
The Boise State Broncos are hosting this contest as a 5.5-point favorite. Boise State has posted a 6-3 record at home this season as they seek to snap a four-game losing streak in conference play. This stretch includes a close overtime loss to UNLV and a blowout defeat to Utah State. Recent results suggest Boise State’s backcourt has struggled to generate efficient offense, both in close games and in blowouts.
The Colorado State Rams have an 11-6 overall record but are 2-4 in Mountain West play. Colorado State is coming off a solid road victory at UNLV and have key contributors like Carey Booth, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and Jevin Muniz, who is operating the offense with 4.6 assists per contest. The Rams have also historically performed well against Boise State, claiming four consecutive wins in the series and six of the last 10 meetings. This recent success may give the road underdogs confidence in this environment.
Both squads are still trying to find an offensive rhythm. Both teams have averaged under 80 points per game this season, which has not been enough for them to win on a consistent basis in conference play. The team that can get its offense figured out the best in this game will likely come away with a much-needed win in Mountain West competition.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
In the last ten meetings between these programs, Colorado State holds a 6-4 advantage, including four straight victories.
Colorado State is 10-6 against the spread this season.
Boise State is 8-7 against the spread going into this contest.
The under is 10-5 in Boise State's games this year.
Colorado State is 9-7 to the over this season.
Colorado State vs Boise State Model Projection
Score Projection: Colorado State 74 – Boise State 76 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Colorado State 30%, Boise State 70% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest from Boise is for Colorado State to cover the spread as a 5.5-point underdog on the road. The Rams have had plenty of their own shortcomings, but Boise State is having trouble on both ends of the floor of late in conference play. Boise should win at home, but it'll be a close one and I'll take the Rams to cover.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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