The Florida Atlantic Owls and Saint Mary’s Gaels will meet in college basketball action on Friday night. Both teams enter the game enjoying strong non-conference seasons so far. Saint Mary’s (9-2) will host Florida Atlantic (8-3) at the University Credit Union Pavilion with hopes of finishing their nonconference slate on a high note as West Coast Conference play draws near. Florida Atlantic will try to send Saint Mary's into WCC play with a loss. Before tip-off from Moraga, you can find my Florida Atlantic vs Saint Mary's prediction right here.
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Saint Mary’s enters this contest off a loss in a tight game against Boise State, a result that highlighted both their toughness and areas for improvement offensively. A key piece of their offense is junior forward Paulius Murauskas, who has led the Gaels with 18.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this season, along with consistent production from guard Mikey Lewis from deep.
The Gaels have been dominant at home with a 6-0 record, and they rank among the nation’s best in points allowed at 63.9 per game. They are known for a defensive system that limits opponents’ efficiency. Saint Mary’s also benefits from big contributions on the boards from Andrew McKeever, ranked among the national leaders in rebounds per contest with 10.2 boards per game.
Florida Atlantic has leaned on its offense, averaging 83.9 points per game and scoring over 100 points in each of its last two games. The Owls are led by guard Devin Vanterpool’s 17.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game and junior guard Kanaan Carlyle is a threat as well. But the Owls have struggled to establish consistency on the road, where they are 1-1 in true road games this season. The Owls will try to figure out how to generate offense against one of the better defensive teams in men's college basketball.
Score Projection: Florida Atlantic 67 – Saint Mary’s 76
Win Probability: Florida Atlantic 9%, Saint Mary’s 91%
Saint Mary's should control this game for the most part at home, thanks to the strength of their defense. But I'm going to take the points with the FAU Owls, who should be able to do just enough offensively to keep this game within 10 points or so. Expect the Gaels to win the game, but for the Owls to cover the spread on Friday night in Moraga.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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