The Wednesday night showdown between the Florida Gators and the Texas Longhorns is one of the marquee college basketball games for the night. A top-10 Gators squad travels to Austin looking to extend its strong run in conference play against a Longhorns team that has hovered around the bubble and needs a quality victory to solidify its postseason credentials. Before tip-off from Texas, continue reading to get my Florida vs Texas prediction.
Our Florida vs Texas Pick
Pick: Florida -6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Florida Gators @ Texas Longhorns
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Moody Center, Austin, TX
Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Florida enters Austin riding a seven-game winning streak and leads the SEC standings with a 12-2 conference mark.
Texas sits at 17-10 overall and has been inconsistent in league play, recently falling to Georgia to snap a five-game win streak.
Florida’s defense ranks among the best in the league, while Texas boasts one of the more efficient offenses but struggles on D.
The Gators are in position to clinch at least a share of the regular-season league title with a win, adding additional stakes to this contest.
Key Players
Florida
Alex Condon – Condon scored 24 points in Florida’s recent win over Ole Miss and has been a key contributor inside and on the perimeter.
Thomas Haugh – A consistent scoring presence, averaging around 17 points per game this season.
Urban Klavzar – Accurate from three with a strong perimeter percentage this season, adding spacing and scoring for the Gators.
Texas
Dailyn Swain – Leads the Longhorns in scoring and contributes across multiple statistical categories, a focal point of the offense. Swain leads the Longhorns in rebounds and assists per game as well.
Matas Vokietaitis – Efficient around the rim with high field goal percentage and consistent scoring.
Camden Heide – Among the nation’s best from deep, his shooting can change the game if he gets hot.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Florida
Texas
Points per game
86.4
85.1
Points allowed per game
71.2
75.4
Team Field Goal %
47%
50%
Rebounds per game
45.8
38.3
Assists per game
16.6
12.6
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Last season’s meeting saw Florida win convincingly in Gainesville. This is their first meeting of this season.
Florida is 13-14 against the spread so far this season.
Texas enters this matchup with a 15-11 record against the spread.
Florida vs Texas Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida 87 – Texas 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Florida 67%, Texas 33% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This game is a big one for both teams, but all indicators suggest Florida’s balance and defense give them the edge in a competitive environment. The Gators’ size makes them one of the hardest teams in the country to beat when they are hitting shots at even a decent rate. I expect the Gators to hit enough shots to win and cover the point spread in this matchup from Moody Center.
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