The 2026 Sun Belt Conference men’s basketball championship game pits the top‑seeded Troy Trojans against the 10-seed Georgia Southern Eagles on Monday at the Pensacola Bay Center. Troy advanced to the title game with a 78‑70 semifinal victory over Southern Miss, while Georgia Southern punched its ticket by knocking off 2-seed Marshall in an upset. Can the Eagles get their sixth win in six days to get to March Madness? Continue reading for my Georgia Southern vs Troy prediction in college basketball.
Our Georgia Southern vs Troy Pick
Pick: Troy Trojans -5.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Georgia Southern Eagles @ Troy Trojans
Date & Time: Monday, March 9, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Troy enters as the regular‑season Sun Belt champion and top seed in the tournament, with a strong resume and recent semifinal win over Southern Miss after getting byes through the majority of the tournament.
Georgia Southern caught fire in the bracket as a double‑digit seed, upsetting multiple opponents to reach the championship game.
The winner earns an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, with Troy favored going into this game, though being an underdog hasn't stopped Georgia Southern yet in this tourney.
Fatigue could be a factor here, as Georgia Southern is playing for the sixth day in a row.
Key Players
Troy Trojans
Victor Valdes: Leading scorer and floor general, averaging around 15 points and 4.5 assists per game this season, a crucial catalyst for Troy’s offense.
Thomas Dowd: Team’s top rebounder with a double‑digit rebounding average, Dowd also contributes 14‑15 points per game and anchors Troy’s presence inside.
Jerrell Bellamy: Provided 22 points in Troy’s semifinal win, showcasing the ability to take over big games for the Trojans.
Cooper Campbell: Versatile contributor who adds scoring, playmaking, and defensive pressure with steals and assists as a multi‑faceted guard.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Tyren Moore: One of Georgia Southern’s top scoring threats at 16.4 points per game, able to create offense in key moments.
Alden Applewhite: Strong frontcourt presence who leads the team in rebounding and provides valuable interior scoring and board control.
Spudd Webb: Defensive playmaker leading the team in steals, and contributes offense in spurts as a combo guard. Webb had a huge game for Georgia Southern in the semifinals against Marshall.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Troy
Georgia Southern
Points Per Game
80.5
81.5
Points Allowed Per Game
73.5
79.8
Field Goal Percentage
45%
44%
Rebounds Per Game
38.4
34.3
Assists Per Game
16.1
11.3
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
Troy defeated Georgia Southern by five points on the road in their first meeting of the season.
Troy is 16-14 against the spread going into the Sun Belt title game.
Georgia Southern enters this contest with a 16-17 record against the spread for the year.
Troy vs Georgia Southern Model Projection
Score Projection: Troy 78 – Georgia Southern 71 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Troy 64%, Georgia Southern 36% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This championship game features the top regular‑season team in the Sun Belt against a surging Georgia Southern squad that has exceeded expectations in the Sun Belt tournament. Troy’s balance, size, and experience should give them the edge late, particularly in a title game atmosphere where execution down the stretch matters most. While Georgia Southern has the firepower to keep it close, I expect them to run out of gas at some point here, and I'll lay the points with the Trojans.
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