With the 2026 Sun Belt Conference Tournament set to begin on Tuesday, the Georgia State Panthers and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will open postseason play in one of the first‑round games of the bracket. Both teams finished the season at 10‑21 overall and 7‑11 in conference play, a reflection of inconsistent play across the board. This Georgia State vs Louisiana matchup in Pensacola is an opportunity for one team to finally build some positive momentum after a rough regular season and to live to play another day in March.
Our Georgia State vs Louisiana Pick
Pick: Georgia State Panthers -1.5
Confidence: 2 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Georgia State Panthers @ Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Date & Time: Tuesday, March 3, 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Both Georgia State and Louisiana finished with identical records of 10‑21 overall and 7‑11 in Sun Belt action, making this tournament opener highly unpredictable.
Louisiana won the regular‑season meeting between these teams on January 29 by an 82‑72 margin, paced by a 23‑point performance from De’Vion Lavergne. Georgia State will try to settle the score here, while Louisiana attempts to get a second straight win over the Panthers.
Both teams have struggled to establish consistent offensive efficiency, with neither squad boasting standout statistical advantages in major categories.
Key Players
Georgia State Panthers
Malachi Brown – A scoring presence for the Panthers, he has led the team in scoring in several outings and he also leads the team in assists with 3.0 per game.
Jelani Hamilton – Hamilton leads Georgia State with over 17 points per game going into this matchup. If the Panthers are going to advance to Wednesday's action in the Sun Belt tournament, they need Hamilton to have a good game.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Dorian Finister – Averaging 14.5 points per game with ancillary contributions on the glass and in terms of assists, Finister has been Louisiana’s most consistent scorer and will be looked upon to shoulder the offensive load for them again.
De’Vion Lavergne – Capable of exploding for big scoring nights, as evidenced by his 23‑point performance in the regular‑season win over the Panthers, Lavergne’s scoring rhythm will be pivotal for Louisiana’s success.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Georgia State
Louisiana
Points Per Game
70.3
62.7
Points Allowed Per Game
74.4
70.0
Team Field Goal %
38%
40%
Rebounds Per Game
35.3
30.3
Assists Per Game
11.6
10.5
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
In the only regular‑season meeting between these squads this year, Louisiana posted an 82‑72 win over Georgia State, with strong scoring from Lavergne and a balanced effort that outpaced the Panthers.
Georgia State is 13-16 against the spread so far this season.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 13-17-1 against the spread entering conference tournament time.
Georgia State vs Louisiana Model Projection
Score Projection: Georgia State 68 – Louisiana 65
Win Probability: Georgia State 52%, Louisiana 48%
Final Thoughts
This Sun Belt Tournament opener between two teams with identical records should be a low‑scoring, competitive matchup. Georgia State’s slightly higher scoring output and balanced offensive contributions give them a slight edge, but Louisiana’s ability to put together big nights from Finister and Lavergne will keep this contest close. I expect a tight game that comes down to execution in the final minutes, with Georgia State earning the victory.
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