The Green Bay Phoenix travel to Indianapolis on Thursday to take on the IU Indianapolis Jaguars in a Horizon League college basketball game that one team has to win. Both of these teams are 0-2 in Horizon League play early on, but there is no hiding from the win column for one of these teams in this contest. Find out who I like to get the win in this matchup below, as I make my Green Bay vs IU Indianapolis prediction for Thursday.
Green Bay enters this game coming off two straight losses to Wright State and Robert Morris. They are searching for offensive rhythm, averaging just 72.1 points per game while surrendering 76.0 points per game. Marcus Hall leads the Phoenix with 14.5 points per game, but the offense has struggled to find consistent scoring beyond its top option.
IU Indianapolis, on the other hand, averages 87.0 points per contest, led by Kyler D’Augustino’s 16.2 scoring average. The Jaguars’ offense thrives on pacing and ball movement, averaging over 20 assists per game, but defensive lapses have left them vulnerable. The Jaguars are giving up 94.2 points per game and have lost their first two Horizon League games of the season to Detroit Mercy and Youngstown State.
The contrasting styles in this game will make for an interesting matchup. Green Bay’s controlled approach and IU Indianapolis’s uptempo style will define how this one unfolds. Expect the Phoenix to try and slow the Jaguars down to get them out of their comfort zone.
Score Projection: Green Bay 85 – IU Indianapolis 81
Win Probability: Green Bay 56%, IU Indianapolis 44%
The key to this game for me is the lackluster defense of IU Indianapolis. The Jaguars play at the fastest adjusted tempo in Division I men's basketball, according to KenPom. But they also have a bottom five defense in the sport according to that same set of metrics.
My expectation is for this game to be fast-paced and very exciting. But it is also going to go the way of the Green Bay Phoenix. As much as I love to cheer against Doug Gottlieb, the data says to lay the 2.5 points with the Phoenix on Thursday night in Horizon League action.
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