The Green Bay Phoenix enter Friday’s Paradise Jam opener searching for stability as they take on the Yale Bulldogs. Yale’s offense has been operating at a high level through four games, while Green Bay’s issues have made them a massive underdog in this contest. Before tip-off from Saint Thomas, you can find my Green Bay vs Yale prediction below.
Our Green Bay vs Yale Pick
- Pick: Yale –16.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Green Bay Phoenix vs Yale Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Friday, November 21, 2025, 12:30 PM ET
- Venue: Virgin Islands Sport and Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Yale has opened the season with a strong attack, featuring efficient ball movement and steady scoring from key contributors. Nick Townsend has been outstanding, averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. He is expected to be the best player on the floor in this matchup.
- Green Bay sits at 1-4 and continues to look for rhythm. Their overtime loss to Minnesota showed that they aren't to be taken lightly, but the Phoenix have struggled to maintain control late in games. The only win for Doug Gottlieb's team this season came against an opponent from outside of Division I.
- Green Bay dealt with travel setbacks heading into the tournament, with several players arriving later than expected. That could influence their energy levels early in the weekend.
- These teams are in different leagues offensively this season. Green Bay is averaging just 67.2 points per game and is ranked 297th out of 365 Division I teams in offensive efficiency at KenPom. Yale is putting up 89.3 points per game and is ranked 37th on offense according to KenPom. Green Bay will have to overcome that massive mismatch to have a shot here.
Betting Trends
- Green Bay is 1-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Yale is 2-2 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The under has hit in three of Green Bay's first four games during this campaign.
- The over is 4-0 through four games for Yale, thanks in large part to their potent offense.
Green Bay vs Yale Model Projection
Score Projection: Yale 90 – Green Bay 64
Win Probability: Yale 91%, Green Bay 9%
Final Thoughts
Fading Doug Gottlieb's team is always going to be an appealing option to me. I think Yale will tear the Phoenix apart in this contest, as Green Bay just doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Bulldogs on the scoreboard. I recommend laying the points with the Ivy Leaguers in this game to tip off the action from the Virgin Islands on Friday afternoon.
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