Howard Bison vs UMBC Retrievers Prediction: NCAA Tournament First Four

The First Four round of the NCAA Tournament often produces drama, and Tuesday’s meeting between Howard and UMBC carries that potential as well. Both programs arrive with confidence after strong conference tournament runs and productive offensive stretches late in the season. But only one of them will earn their way into the round of 64 to face Michigan. Before tip-off from Dayton, continue reading to get my Howard vs UMBC prediction in college basketball.

Howard vs UMBC Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Howard Bison @ UMBC Retrievers
• Date & Time: Tuesday, March 17, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
• Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
• Broadcast: truTV

Key Storylines

Howard arrives after a strong season in the MEAC and has been one of the most consistent teams in its conference. The Bison earned their tournament bid following an impressive regular season that included a 23-10 record and a conference title run. Their offense thrives on perimeter shooting and guard play, allowing them to stretch defenses and generate high-percentage looks from beyond the arc.

UMBC has quietly built a strong season in the America East. The Retrievers leaned on a disciplined defensive approach and a highly-efficient offense throughout the season. Their ability to force turnovers and get out in transition has helped them stay competitive against quality opponents. UMBC also enters the tournament with several experienced players who contribute across multiple statistical categories.

Key Players

UMBC Retrievers

• DJ Armstrong Jr. – The veteran guard is one of the most reliable shooters on the roster. He averages around 13.4 points per game and ranks among the best three-point shooters in the conference, hitting more than 41% from long range while averaging nearly 3 made threes per game. His ability to stretch the defense is central to UMBC’s offense.
• Jah’Likai King – King provides scoring balance and averages about 13.7 points per game. He frequently attacks the basket and helps create opportunities when defenses focus heavily on UMBC’s perimeter shooters.
• Ace Valentine – Valentine plays a major role as the primary facilitator. His assist-to-turnover ratio of about 3.1 ranks among the best in the conference, allowing UMBC to run an efficient offense while minimizing mistakes.

Howard Bison

• Bryce Harris – Harris leads the Bison in scoring and rebounding. His ability to impact the game in multiple areas makes him the focal point of the offense. He consistently produces double digit scoring and provides strong presence inside.
• Cam Gillus – Gillus leads the Bison with 4.6 assists per game and he will have to be excellent when it comes to distributing the ball to breach this UMBC defense.

Stat Comparison

Betting Trends

• UMBC is 19-11 against the spread this season.
• Howard enters the tournament at a nation-leading 20-8-1 against the spread for the year.
• The under is 17-12 in Howard games this year.
• UMBC has stayed under the total in 17 of their 30 opportunities this season.

Howard vs UMBC Pick & Model Projection

• Score Projection: Howard 74 – UMBC 70 ATS PRO
• Pick: Howard ML ATS PRO
• Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
• Win Probability: Howard 57%, UMBC 43% ATS PRO

This matchup is expected to remain close throughout, and the tight spread reflects how evenly these teams are rated. UMBC’s disciplined defense and strong perimeter shooting could keep the Retrievers within reach for most of the night. However, Howard holds a slight advantage in scoring versatility and rebounding, two areas that tend to matter in tight tournament games. I'm going to take Howard to win this one as a slight underdog on the moneyline, in what should be a great tournament opener from Dayton.

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