The upcoming NCAA Tournament first round game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Clemson Tigers on Friday is shaping up to be a tightly contested 8‑seed versus 9‑seed matchup. Iowa earned a 9 seed in the South Region and will face 8‑seed Clemson in Tampa, Florida. The Hawkeyes carry momentum from a solid Big Ten season, while the Tigers enter after a solid ACC campaign. Which power conference team will win this game? Keep reading to get my Iowa vs Clemson preview and prediction before tip-off.
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Iowa vs Clemson Game Snapshot
Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes @ Clemson Tigers
Date & Time: Friday, March 20, 2026
Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Key Storylines
Iowa returns to the NCAA Tournament after a two‑year absence, boasting a 21‑12 overall record and a balanced offensive and defensive effort throughout the season. They have bounced back immediately following the end of the Fran McCaffery era.
Clemson finished 24‑10 and 12‑6 in ACC play, a strong resume that earned the Tigers a solid seed and credibility in the field.
Both teams have had peaks and valleys from midseason performance lulls, making each team dangerous if hot at the right time, but incredibly volatile going into a single-elimination scenario starting Friday.
Key Players
Iowa Hawkeyes
Bennett Stirtz – The senior guard is Iowa’s engine, leading the team in scoring and facilitating the offense with roughly 4.4 assists per game, while shooting near 49.8% from the floor. His ball control and leadership are central to Iowa’s success and a major factor for bettors watching game flow.
Alvaro Folgueiras – When he scores in double figures, Iowa is noted to be dominant, with the team posting a strong winning record in those games, making him a key X‑factor if he delivers efficient scoring.
Cooper Koch – A scoring and spacing threat, Koch’s ability to knock down perimeter shots and contribute on the boards adds depth to Iowa’s attack and forces Clemson to defend multiple levels.
Clemson Tigers
Carter Welling – Before a knee injury late in the season, Welling supplied rim protection and rebounding. His injury status could impact Clemson’s frontcourt strength and overall game plan if limited.
RJ Godfrey – A versatile forward who impacts both ends of the floor with scoring efficiency and rebounding, Godfrey’s balanced performance will be key for Clemson keeping the game competitive.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Iowa
Clemson
Points per game
75.2
74.1
Team Field Goal %
49%
45%
Rebounds Per Game
29.4
34.3
Assists Per Game
15.3
12.8
Betting Trends
Clemson is 16-16-1 against the spread this season.
Iowa holds an 18-15 record against the spread going into the tournament.
The over is 19-14 in Iowa games this season.
Clemson has stayed under the total in 20 of 33 games.
Iowa vs Clemson Pick & Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa 74 – Clemson 70 ATS PRO
Pick: Iowa -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3.5 out of 5 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Iowa 58%, Clemson 42% ATS PRO
Taken together, this first‑round showdown suggests a tight contest that is likely to come down to execution late. Iowa’s efficient ball movement and experience under pressure give them a slight edge, but Clemson’s balanced scoring and defensive grit make a win for the Tigers well within reach. I'm going to go with Iowa here, as I think Stirtz gives us a second straight incredible March performance after his run with Drake last year, while Clemson loses in the first round for the second straight year.
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