Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction: NCAA Tournament Seeding On the Line In Big Ten
Updated 09 Jul, 2026
Iowa and Ohio State meet Thursday in a key Big Ten Tournament contest that carries significant postseason implications. Iowa enters the game after a confidence-boosting victory over Maryland that snapped a brief skid and pushed the Hawkeyes to 21-11 on the season. Ohio State, meanwhile, finished the regular season strong and remains one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the Big Ten. With both programs capable of scoring in bursts and leaning heavily on veteran guards, this Iowa vs Ohio State matchup should be one of the more entertaining on the Thursday schedule in college hoops.
Pick: Ohio State ML ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Iowa arrives after a strong defensive performance in its tournament opener, defeating Maryland behind a balanced effort that included 17 points and eight assists from Bennett Stirtz and a career high 19 points from Cooper Koch. That victory improved the Hawkeyes to 21 wins this season and showed the team’s ability to win with defense and rebounding when the offense slows down.
Ohio State closed the regular season playing its best basketball of the year. The Buckeyes recently dominated Indiana 91-78 while shooting nearly 60% from the field and knocking down 11 three pointers. Earlier in the week, they also crushed Penn State 94-62 behind an outstanding perimeter shooting display, and defeated Purdue in the game before that.
The matchup will likely hinge on which team gets off to a stronger start. The Hawkeyes struggled early agianst Maryland, but were able to turn things around against a struggling opponent. They won't be able to get away with a similarly slow start here against a better opponent in the Buckeyes.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes
Stat | Iowa | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 75.4 | 80.5 |
Points allowed per game | 65.8 | 73.0 |
Team Field Goal % | 49% | 50% |
Rebounds Per Game | 29.7 | 33.7 |
Assists Per Game | 15.2 | 14.4 |
Score Projection: Iowa 74 – Ohio State 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Iowa 43%, Ohio State 57% ATS PRO
This game features two experienced backcourts and a pair of teams that can score quickly when perimeter shots fall. Iowa has the best individual scorer in Bennett Stirtz, but Ohio State enters the tournament playing excellent offensive basketball and shooting the ball at a high level. The Buckeyes also possess slightly more scoring depth, which could become critical late in the game if Stirtz faces heavy defensive pressure. I'll take Ohio State to win as a slight underdog against an Iowa team that is playing for the second straight afternoon.
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