The Big 12 has a huge game coming up in Waco on Wednesday night as the unbeaten Iowa State Cyclones take on the Baylor Bears. Iowa State enters this game off to a historic start and with one of the most efficient offenses in the country, while Baylor aims to rebound after a tough outing in its league opener against TCU. Before the action begins in Texas, you can keep reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Iowa State vs Baylor prediction.
Our Iowa State vs Baylor Pick
Pick: | Iowa State -4.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones @ Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Wednesday, January 7, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas
- Broadcast: Peacock
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Key Storylines
- Iowa State has matched the best start in school history, entering this game unbeaten at 14-0 and producing multiple wins by 20 or more points. The Cyclones are led by a balanced scoring attack with Milan Momcilovic averaging 18.5 points per game and Joshua Jefferson contributing points, rebounds, and assists in bunches. Iowa State ranks among the national leaders in offensive efficiency, while their defense is allowing just 62.6 points per game.
- Baylor comes into the contest off a loss in its Big 12 opener, held to a season-low scoring output of 63 points against TCU. The Bears still average 93.1 points per game, with Cameron Carr leading the team at 21.0 points per contest, but defensive lapses have been an issue against stronger opponents at times.
- This is only the second true road game of the season for Iowa State. They passed their first road test of the year against a Purdue team that was ranked number one in the country at the time. This is a great chance for the Cyclones to prove that game was no fluke.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams are 25-25 against each other all-time.
- Iowa State defeated Baylor 74-55 in their most recent meeting, controlling the game from start to finish.
- Iowa State is 8-5-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Baylor is 6-6 against the spread entering this contest.
- The over is 8-6 in games involving Iowa State this year.
- Baylor has gone 8-4 to the over going into Wednesday night's action.
Iowa State vs Baylor Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa State 83 – Baylor 75
Win Probability: Iowa State 71%, Baylor 29%
Final Thoughts
Iowa State should have the upper hand in this matchup with the Baylor Bears in Waco. Iowa State has already proven it can win against elite teams on the road, even if it has only had to do so one time this season. Expect the combination of elite offense and defense from the Cyclones to help them get a win in this marquee matchup on Wednesday night.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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