Thursday’s Sun Belt Conference game between the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns and the Appalachian State Mountaineers will tip earlier than expected due to inclement weather in the forecast this week. App State enters this contest with a 4-4 conference record and will try to get a win at home against a Louisiana continues to search for offensive rhythm on the road. Here, I break down this matchup in the Sun Belt and bring you my Louisiana vs App State prediction on Thursday afternoon.
Our Louisiana vs App State Pick
Pick:
Over 125.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
4/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
Date & Time: Thursday, January 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Venue: George M. Holmes Convocation Center, Boone, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Appalachian State is in the middle of the pack among Sun Belt teams in conference play this season. The Mountaineers average about 73 points per game and are especially efficient at home, where they are 6-3 so far this year. Guard Alonzo Dodd has emerged as the offensive focal point, coming off a 27-point performance in his most recent outing for the Mountaineers. But with nobody scoring 15+ points per game on the App State roster, it's hard for opponents to know where their offense is going to come from.
Louisiana continues to struggle offensively, averaging just over 60 points per game. The Ragin' Cajuns rank near the bottom of the conference in shooting percentage and three-point production, making it difficult for them to keep pace with higher-scoring opponents. Their defensive effort has been competitive, but extended scoring droughts have been costly for the Ragin' Cajuns throughout the season.
Appalachian State holds an advantage on the glass and in assist rate, which often translates into second-chance points and higher-quality shots. Louisiana’s lack of depth has shown late in games, especially on the road, where their scoring has dropped further.
This is the first meeting between the teams this season, and the Mountaineers will look to rebound from a loss to Old Dominion. Louisiana beat South Alabama in its last game and will try to get a second straight win.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Louisiana is 9-3 all-time against App State.
App State is 10-7-1 against the spread so far this season.
Louisiana is 8-11-1 against the spread this year.
The under is 11-7 in App State games going into Thursday's game.
The Ragin' Cajuns have stayed under the total in 13 of their first 20 games.
Louisiana vs App State Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisiana 61 – Appalachian State 75 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Louisiana 17%, Appalachian State 83% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this matchup is for the Ragin' Cajuns and Mountaineers to combine to go over the total, which is set in the mid-120s. Louisiana's offense has been dismal this year, but App State should do enough offensively to help offset that, while Louisiana should do enough scoring in garbage time to get us to the total.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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