The upcoming showdown between the Louisville Cardinals and the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday will be the start of a huge sports day for Indiana. The Hoosiers play against a top 10 team in basketball before the Big Ten championship game in football later in the day. This game features two 7-1 teams, both looking to bounce back from taking their first losses of the season last time out. Before tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, continue reading to get my Louisville vs Indiana prediction.
Our Louisville vs Indiana Pick
- Pick: Louisville -4.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Louisville Cardinals @ Indiana Hoosiers
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 2:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Both teams need a rebound: Louisville is coming off an 89-80 loss to Arkansas in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Indiana lost its first game of the season in Big Ten play, falling 73-64 at Minnesota. Both programs will be eager to respond after losing for the first time this season, as they try to avoid a second consecutive defeat.
- Offensive firepower vs. defensive toughness: Louisville is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 94.6 PPG, fueled by 12.6 made threes per game. Indiana averages a more modest 86.4 PPG but relies on disciplined defense, as they are giving up just 63.8 points per game coming into this game.
- Home-court advantage: Though this is technically a neutral-site game, “home‐court advantage” could lean toward Indiana due to their proximity to Indianapolis. Louisville isn't too far from Indy either, though, and it will be interesting to see what the fan breakdown is like for this game.
- Key backcourt talent: Indiana will lean heavily on sharpshooters like Tucker DeVries (16.8 PPG, 3.6 made threes per game) and Lamar Wilkerson. Louisville relies on Ryan Conwell, Mikel Brown Jr., and Isaac McKneely to shoot, drive, and create assists.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The series between these two teams goes back decades, with Indiana holding a slight 12-10 advantage. On neutral floors, the ledger sits even at 4-4.
- In their most recent meeting (Nov. 27, 2024, in the Bahamas), Louisville destroyed Indiana 89-61.
- Both of these teams are 5-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Both teams have gone 4-4 in the over/under market heading into this matchup.
Louisville vs Indiana Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisville 80 – Indiana 75
Win Probability: Louisville 67%, Indiana 33%
Final Thoughts
We should see a relatively even split in terms of fan support for both teams here, though Indiana could take over this building given that the football team is playing in Indy just a few hours later in the day. I'm going to take Louisville to win and cover the spread as a favorite in this contest, as the Cardinals should bounce back nicely from a loss against a ranked SEC opponent in their last outing.
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