Rivalry games reveal how reliable a team truly is, and Sunday’s Michigan vs Ohio State game arrives with stakes that go well beyond bragging rights. Michigan has a 21-1 record with a free-flowing offense and a defense that allows them to control games. Ohio State has steadied things after a bumpy stretch, leaning on Bruce Thornton’s star power and improved ball movement. Here, I break down this big game in the Big Ten and make my Michigan vs Ohio State prediction.
Our Michigan vs Ohio State Pick
Pick: Ohio State +10.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes
Date & Time: Sunday, February 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio
Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Form guide: Michigan is 21-1 overall and 11-1 in Big Ten play with a road mark of 6-0. Ohio State sits 15-7 and 7-5 in conference play, but just handled Maryland convincingly and has been strong at home at 10-2.
Star power: Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team at 14.3 PPG and 7.2 RPG, Elliot Cadeau dishes 5.4 APG, and Aday Mara adds blocked shots in bunches. Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton leads the Buckeyes at 19.4 PPG with 3.6 APG. John Mobley Jr. is also an important scorer for the Buckeyes and will also need to have a big game to help his team here.
Injuries and availability: Michigan wing Winters Grady remains out indefinitely. For Ohio State, Christoph Tilly has been active of late, and there’s no indication of a major new absence entering Sunday.
Pace and shot quality: Michigan averages 91.4 PPG with 52% shooting and defends at 68.9 PPG allowed. Ohio State averages 82.2 PPG on 49% shooting and allows 73 PPG. The Wolverines are superior on the defensive glass and at rim protection, while the Buckeyes have been the better free-throw shooting team and can win at the stripe.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings: Michigan won 74-62 on January 23 in Ann Arbor in the first meeting between these teams this season.
Ohio State is 9-12-1 against the spread this season.
Michigan is 11-11 against the spread going into this one.
The under is 13-9 in Michigan's games this year.
The Buckeyes are 11-11 in the over/under market this year.
Michigan vs Ohio State Model Projection
Score Projection: Michigan 76 – Ohio State 70
Win Probability: Michigan 64%, Ohio State 36%
Final Thoughts
Michigan should win this game and continue to play like one of the best teams in all of college basketball. But I'm going to take the points with the Buckeyes on their home floor in this contest, as the unpredictable nature of rivalry games should make this contest tighter than expected in a hostile environment for the number-two team in the country.
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