The Southeastern Conference resumes its rigorous schedule this Wednesday night when the Mississippi State Bulldogs pay a visit to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama enters the contest as one of the better offensive teams in the league and is seeking to maintain its strong position in the conference standings. Before the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs go at it in college hoops, continue reading for my Mississippi State vs Alabama prediction.
Our Mississippi State vs Alabama Pick
Pick: Mississippi State +14.5 ATS PRO Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
Alabama has been on a roll, winning six games in a row and demonstrating its offensive depth and scoring ability against quality competition, including a recent high-scoring double-overtime win over Arkansas.
Mississippi State enters this contest with a losing record in SEC play and will need more than good performances from its stars if it hopes to keep this game close.
Mississippi State tends to struggle against high-caliber competition, going 0-4 against ranked teams so far this season, which could become a problem again here.
Key Players
Alabama Crimson Tide
Labaron Philon Jr.: Alabama’s leading scorer at roughly 21.3 points per game and also contributes around five assists per outing, making him the centerpiece of Alabama’s offense. He shoots near 50% from the field for the season and provides production on both ends of the floor.
Aden Holloway: Averaging nearly 17 points per game, Holloway brings secondary scoring and deep shooting range that can stretch defenses.
Amari Allen: Adds double‑digit scoring around 12 points per game along with strong rebounding figures, giving Alabama another reliable option on offense and a physical presence on the glass.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Josh Hubbard: Mississippi State’s principal offensive threat, averaging about 22 points per game and seeing heavy usage. Hubbard’s ability to score in bunches and hit from deep is critical to the Bulldogs’ scoring output.
Jayden Epps: Contributes roughly 14.3 points per game while providing ball-handling and scoring versatility.
Quincy Ballard: Approaches 6 points and over 6 rebounds per contest, giving State added size and interior presence.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Alabama
Mississippi State
Points per game
92.6
78.3
Points allowed per game
83.9
79.3
Team Field Goal %
46%
45%
Rebounds per game
41.3
39.4
Assists per game
16.5
12.8
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first game of the season between these two programs.
Alabama is 10-16 against the spread so far this season.
Mississippi State is 10-17 against the spread going into Wednesday night.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Model Projection
Score Projection: Mississippi State 82 – Alabama 93 ATS PRO Win Probability: Mississippi State 10%, Alabama 90% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Alabama should be able to win this game rather comfortably when all is said and done. However, I'm going to take the points with Mississippi State here. The Alabama defense is more than susceptible to an off day or two and I think we are in for a high-scoring game that will be decided by 12 points or so, allowing the Bulldogs to cover the number.
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