The stage is set for an intriguing Big Ten clash as the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans on Sunday afternoon. Both teams enter this game with a chance to solidify their postseason positioning and prove they belong in the upper echelon of the conference. Michigan State holds the clear advantage in the standings, but the Buckeyes will try to pull off an upset on the road here. Before the action begins on Sunday afternoon, you'll find my Ohio State vs Michigan State prediction below.
Our Ohio State vs Michigan State Pick
Pick: Michigan State -9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans
Date & Time: Sunday, February 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Breslin Events Center, East Lansing, Michigan
Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Ohio State’s recent win against a ranked Wisconsin team showcased its scoring ability through veteran Bruce Thornton and sharpshooter Devin Royal. But Ohio State is 4-4 on the road and will face a huge road test here.
The Spartans have been strong on the glass and defensively, ranking high in adjusted efficiency, which could frustrate Ohio State’s offensive rhythm.
Historically, MSU holds the edge in this series and has claimed most recent encounters, particularly at Breslin Center.
Oiho State is in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten standings, while Michigan State is in the top five in the standings, making it a big game for them as they try to climb the standings late in the season.
Key Players
Michigan State Key Players
Carson Cooper – One of MSU’s senior leaders and primary scorers, contributing significantly to offensive consistency.
Jaxon Kohler – A defensive anchor and rebounder who helps control the paint and limit second-chance points.
Jeremy Fears Jr. – Playmaking guard who can fill up the stat sheet with points and assists, key to MSU’s tempo and execution.
Ohio State Key Players
Bruce Thornton – Buckeyes’ go-to scorer and floor leader, recently exploding for 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists against Wisconsin.
Devin Royal – Offers big scoring nights from deep, tying his career high with four three-pointers in his last outing.
Amare Bynum – Freshman making shots efficiently and grabbing rebounds, valuable as a reliable supplementary scorer.
Stat Comparison
Statistic
Ohio State
Michigan State
Points per Game
81.2
78.9
Points Allowed per Game
73.4
66.4
Team Field Goal %
49%
47%
Rebounds Per Game
34.7
41.1
Assists Per Game
14.8
18.6
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first and only game these teams will play in the regular season, though they could meet in the Big Ten tournament later on.
Ohio State is 11-14-1 against the spread so far this season.
Michigan State enters this game at 12-12-2 against the spread this year.
Ohio State vs Michigan State Model Projection
Score Projection: Ohio State 73 – Michigan State 85 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Ohio State 34%, Michigan State 66% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Michigan State’s defense, rebounding advantage, and home-court advantage position them as the stronger side in this Big Ten showdown. While Ohio State can score in bunches and features talented wings who can ignite runs, the Spartans’ collective effort and ability to limit second-chance points should be enough to secure a cover and a victory in East Lansing. I recommend laying the points with Sparty here.
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