The Omaha Mavericks and the Murray State Racers will begin their 2025-26 college basketball campaign against one another on Monday afternoon. Omaha enters fresh off a surprise Summit League championship and its first NCAA Tournament appearance. Meanwhile, Murray State begins a comprehensive rebuild under new head coach Ryan Miller, with zero returning players from last season. Before tip-off from Sioux Falls, continue reading to get my Omaha vs Murray State prediction.
Omaha enters this game off a strong 2024-25 season, capturing the Summit League regular-season crown and tournament title. They earned their first-ever berth in the NCAA Tournament. The Mavericks averaged 77.3 points per game while surrendering 75.3 ppg last season. But much of the firepower that drove their success has moved on. Most notably, forward Marquel Sutton has transferred on after leading the team in scoring last year.
Murray State is in full transition mode. With no returning players from last season, Ryan Miller has stocked the roster with transfers and newcomers. One player to monitor is sophomore sensation Layne Taylor. Taylor scored 17.4 ppg as a freshman at Central Arkansas and is on the preseason watch list in the Missouri Valley Conference.
This is a neutral site game, though the neutral site may benefit one team over the other. This contest is taking place in Sioux Falls, which is the site of the Summit League tournament. That was the tournament that Omaha won to get to the NCAA Tournament last season. The Mavericks have a level of familiarity with this venue that Murray State does not. That might not end up mattering given all the transfer activity for both squads, but it is something to consider.
This game starts early in the afternoon in South Dakota. The start time is not quite as early as the games from South Carolina as a part of this season tip-off event. But we could see the teams struggle in an early start time than they are used to in most of their games.
Score Projection: Omaha 74 – Murray State 75
Win Probability: Omaha 48%, Murray State 52%
This will be an interesting game, as we are set to learn plenty about both of the teams involved. I'm inclined to take the points with the Omaha Mavericks, as they at least have some level of familiarity with this neutral venue from their action in the Summit League. I'm expecting a one-possession game in either direction here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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