The opening round of the Big Ten Tournament brings together two programs that struggled during conference play but still have an opportunity to extend their season. Penn State and Northwestern meet Tuesday night in Chicago after both endured difficult finishes to the regular season. The Nittany Lions enter with a 12–19 overall record and a 3–17 mark in conference games, while Northwestern finished 13–18 with a 5–15 Big Ten record. Here, I break down this Penn State vs Northwestern matchup and make my prediction for it from a betting standpoint.
Pick: Northwestern -6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Penn State enters the tournament in difficult form, losing four of its last five games. The Nittany Lions have struggled defensively during conference play and allowed at least 74 points in three of their past four contests. Their offense has shown flashes thanks to strong three-point shooting, but inconsistency has been a recurring issue.
Northwestern has also had trouble maintaining steady play, though the Wildcats have produced several competitive outings recently. Three wins over a five-game stretch in late February helped stabilize the season before two straight close losses to Minnesota and Purdue. Northwestern relies heavily on disciplined defense and efficient half-court scoring, which often keeps games close.
Northwestern Wildcats
Penn State Nittany Lions
Stat | Penn State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 73.9 | 73.2 |
Points allowed per game | 79.5 | 72.2 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 46% |
Rebounds per game | 29.2 | 30.9 |
Assists per game | 12.5 | 17.0 |
Score Projection: Penn State 69 – Northwestern 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Penn State 37%, Northwestern 63% ATS PRO
This opening round game brings together two teams that struggled to find consistency during Big Ten play, yet Northwestern enters with a noticeable edge in defense and recent competitiveness. Penn State can generate offense through perimeter shooting, but its defensive lapses have been costly throughout conference action. Northwestern’s ability to control tempo and rely on Martinelli for steady scoring should help the Wildcats dictate the flow of the game and I'll take the Wildcats to cover the number and advance to round two.
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