The Big Ten regular-season matchup between the Purdue Boilermakers and Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday has major implications in the conference standings and for NCAA Tournament positioning. Purdue enters as a clear favorite after a productive season, though a loss to Michigan State on Thursday highlighted some end-of-season inconsistency. Ohio State, sitting with a 17-11 record, is fighting to get into the tournament field and needs a signature home win to bolster its résumé. Here, I break down Purdue vs Ohio State and make my pick in the betting markets.
Our Purdue vs Ohio State Pick
Pick: Ohio State +6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers @ Ohio State Buckeyes
Date & Time: Sunday, March 1, 2026, 1:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio
Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Purdue sits at 22-6 overall and 12-5 in Big Ten play, positioning itself for a strong postseason seed. Their efficient offense averages 82.6 points per game, and improved three-point shooting has made them a reliable team away from home.
Ohio State, at 17-11 and 9-8 in conference action, is hovering near the NCAA Tournament bubble. A home win over a top-tier opponent would significantly strengthen its résumé heading into March.
Recent meetings in Columbus have been competitive, showing that Purdue cannot afford a slow start in a hostile environment.
Key Players
Ohio State Buckeyes
Bruce Thornton: The engine of Ohio State’s offense, averaging about 20 points per game while also leading the team in assists. His ability to break down defenders and score late in the shot clock makes him essential to the Buckeyes in tight games.
Devin Royal: A versatile forward contributing roughly 14.1 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Royal provides interior scoring and helps balance the floor alongside Thornton.
John Mobley Jr.: The team’s most consistent perimeter shooter, knocking down nearly 3 three-pointers per contest. His outside shooting will be vital to stretch Purdue’s defense.
Purdue Boilermakers
Braden Smith: Purdue’s floor leader who fills the stat sheet with points and assists. He recently posted a 12-point, 10-assist performance and consistently controls tempo.
Trey Kaufman-Renn: A dependable scoring option who can attack from multiple spots on the floor, giving Purdue a steady half-court presence.
Fletcher Loyer: A key perimeter threat who spaces the floor and adds scoring balance, preventing defenses from collapsing inside.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Purdue
Ohio State
Points per Game
82.6
79.5
Points Allowed per Game
69.5
73.1
Team Field Goal %
50%
49%
Rebounds Per Game
36.1
33.9
Assists Per Game
19.8
14.4
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first meeting between these teams this season.
Purdue is 13-15 against the spread so far this season.
Ohio State enters Sunday with a 12-15-1 record against the spread.
Purdue vs Ohio State Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue 80 – Ohio State 77 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Purdue 67%, Ohio State 33% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Ohio State’s urgency and home crowd will keep this competitive, and Bruce Thornton is capable of a big scoring afternoon. Still, Purdue’s efficiency on both ends, superior assist numbers, and defensive consistency create a slight edge for them. I expect the Boilermakers to control long stretches of the second half and close it out at the free-throw line. I'll take the points with Ohio State, but I project a win for Purdue at the same time.
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