The Big Ten Tournament brings together two programs with plenty at stake as Purdue meets UCLA in a semifinal matchup on Saturday. Both teams are fighting to strengthen their NCAA Tournament seeding while sitting just two wins away from a conference title as well. Both teams have won two games over the last two days to get to this stage. Who will advance to the final? Continue reading to get my Purdue vs UCLA prediction in college hoops.
Purdue vs UCLA Game Snapshot
Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers @ UCLA Bruins
Date & Time: Saturday, March 14, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Venue: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Purdue looks to avenge a narrow 69-67 loss to UCLA earlier this season.
The Boilermakers enter the game after strong tournament performances, including a double-digit win over Nebraska in the quarterfinals.
UCLA continues to rely on playmaking guard Donovan Dent and efficient scorer Tyler Bilodeau. They upset Michigan State to reach this point in the Big Ten tournament and will try to get a win to set up a matchup against either Michigan or Wisconsin.
Key Players
UCLA Bruins
Tyler Bilodeau – The senior forward leads UCLA with about 18 points per game and is one of the most efficient shooters in the conference. He connects on more than 51% of his field goal attempts and over 46% from three-point range. Bilodeau already proved his ability to deliver in big moments when he knocked down the game-winning three against Purdue earlier this season.
Donovan Dent – The senior guard drives the Bruins offense with 13.6 points and 7.5 assists per game. His passing places him among the national leaders in assists. Dent recently recorded a triple-double in the Big Ten Tournament, and his playmaking helps UCLA create high-percentage scoring chances.
Purdue Boilermakers
Braden Smith – One of the top passers in college basketball. Smith averages around 14.7 points and 9 assists per game while controlling Purdue’s offense. His vision fuels Purdue’s offense and creates open shots throughout the lineup.
Trey Kaufman Renn – A reliable interior presence who contributes scoring and rebounding. His physical play helps Purdue maintain balance between inside and outside scoring.
Fletcher Loyer – A dangerous perimeter shooter who recently scored 19 points in Purdue’s tournament win over Nebraska. Loyer’s ability to stretch the floor adds another layer of danger to the Boilermakers offense.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Purdue
UCLA
Points per game
82.2
77.8
Points allowed per game
70.2
70.9
Team Field Goal %
50%
47%
Rebounds Per Game
35.5
32.7
Assists Per Game
19.8
16.2
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings this season: UCLA defeated Purdue 69-67 in January on a late three-pointer.
ATS records this season: Purdue is 13-19 against the spread this season, while UCLA is 15-16-1 against the spread on the year.
Purdue vs UCLA Pick & Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue 78 - UCLA 72 ATS PRO
Pick: UCLA +7.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Purdue 62%, UCLA 38% ATS PRO
Purdue holds several statistical edges entering this contest. The Boilermakers score more points per game and dominate the rebounding battle compared with UCLA. Their passing attack, led by Braden Smith, also creates consistent shot quality, which often leads to efficient offensive outings. Purdue has already shown strong form in the conference tournament with decisive victories that highlight improved shooting and ball movement.
UCLA remains dangerous because of its perimeter shooting and Dent’s ability to control the pace. Bilodeau also provides a proven scoring option who can change a game with outside shooting. However, UCLA’s rebounding limitations could become a problem against a Purdue lineup that thrives on second chance opportunities. I think UCLA will keep the game close enough to cover the spread, while Purdue should advance to the Big Ten title game.
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