The Round of 32 in this year's NCAA Tournament includes a game between two teams that put up big offensive numbers in round one, as Saint Louis takes on Michigan on Saturday. Michigan enters as a top seed with national title expectations, while Saint Louis arrives riding the confidence of a dominant opening-round win. Before tip-off in Buffalo on Saturday afternoon, you will find my Saint Louis vs Michigan prediction below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbvKLagN4fI
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Saint Louis Billikens vs Michigan Wolverines
Date & Time: Saturday, March 21, 2026, 12:10 PM ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Michigan opened the tournament with a 101-80 win over Howard, marking its ninth 100-point game of the season and reinforcing its elite offensive ceiling.
Saint Louis crushed Georgia 102-77, showcasing ball movement with 27 assists and balanced scoring across the roster.
The size disparity looms large in this game, as Michigan’s frontcourt could limit Saint Louis’ interior scoring success.
Key Players
Michigan Wolverines
Morez Johnson Jr. leads the frontcourt and is coming off a 21-point, 10-rebound performance on perfect shooting in the opener. His efficiency inside makes him a matchup problem.
Aday Mara adds interior presence with 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the last game, anchoring both ends of the floor.
Roddy Gayle Jr. contributed scoring balance with 14 points in the first round and provides perimeter creation.
Saint Louis Billikens
Dion Brown leads the offense and scored 18 points on 9-of-10 shooting in the opening round, thriving on high-percentage looks.
Amari McCottry added 13 points and provided versatility as a scorer and rebounder.
Brady Dunlap is a key contributor off the bench, helping fuel the team’s depth and scoring runs.
Kellen Thames rounds out a balanced attack that saw multiple players reach double figures in the first round.
Stat Comparison
Category
Saint Louis
Michigan
Points per game
87.7
87.2
Points allowed per game
69.7
69.5
Team Field Goal %
51%
51%
Rebounds Per Game
40.1
39.8
Assists Per Game
18.6
18.7
Betting Trends
Saint Louis is 18-12-2 against the spread so far this season.
Michigan enters this game at 15-20 against the spread for the year.
The Billikens are 16-16 in the over/under market this season.
The under is 21-14 in Michigan's games this season.
Saint Louis vs Michigan Pick & Model Projection
Score Projection: Saint Louis 74 - Michigan 88 ATS PRO
Pick: Michigan -12.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Saint Louis 28%, Michigan 72% ATS PRO
Michigan’s combination of size, efficiency, and depth presents a difficult hurdle for Saint Louis. While the Billikens excelled in their opener with elite ball movement and interior scoring, replicating that success against a longer and more physical Michigan defense is unlikely. The Wolverines showed they can shift styles mid-game, moving from perimeter shooting to dominant interior play, which adds another layer of difficulty for their opponents. I recommend laying the points with the Wolverines in this matchup from Buffalo.
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