The St. John’s Red Storm will take on the Iowa State Cyclones on Monday in the Players Era Festival from Las Vegas. This early-season showdown brings together two high-octane offenses under the bright lights of Michelob ULTRA Arena. St. John’s is entering off a dominant 97–49 win over Bucknell, while Iowa State comes in undefeated at 4–0. Before this big non-conference test in the desert, continue reading to get my St. John's vs Iowa State prediction.
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St. John’s is riding a wave of offensive efficiency into Vegas, averaging 98.5 points per game. That is their highest scoring pace to start a season under Rick Pitino. In their recent blowout win over Bucknell, Ian Jackson came off the bench to score 20 points without any turnovers, and Dillon Mitchell posted a monster double-double. Their depth gives them a dangerous second unit.
Iowa State's senior guard, Tamin Lipsey, leads the way at 19.0 points and 5.3 assists per game. He’s also a veteran defender, bringing leadership on both ends. Joshua Jefferson is scoring 18.8 points per game and grabbing 7.8 rebounds, while Milan Momcilovic is hitting threes at an efficient 43.3% on high volume. The Cyclones are averaging 95.5 points per game while holding opponents to just 62.3 points per game.
It’s also worth noting that this is St. John’s first-ever game in Las Vegas. Conversely, Iowa State is just 2–7 all-time in Las Vegas, though their roster is much different today than it's been in previous trips to Vegas. The team that can do the best job of getting defensive stops on a consistent basis will give themselves the edge in this matchup from Las Vegas.
This is only the third meeting in program history between the two schools. The last time they met was in 2022, when Iowa State won 71–60 in Ames. The only other prior meeting was back in 1948, a 71–47 St. John’s win.
St. John's is 3-0 against the spread to start this season. Iowa State is 3-0-1 to begin the year. The Red Storm have seen the under cash twice in three chances. Iowa State has gone over the total in three of its first four games, thanks in large part to their explosive offense.
Score Projection: Iowa State 80, St. John's 75
Win Probability: Iowa State 60%, St. John's 40%
We should see some offensive regression on both sides in this game due to the step up in level of competition for both sides. I think that Iowa State will do the best job of overcoming that, leaning on their defense to get a win and cover the spread to open their week in Vegas.
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