Syracuse visits North Carolina in an early-February showdown in the ACC on Monday night. North Carolina brings a perfect home record and a top-20 ranking into this game, while Syracuse arrives having stopped a losing streak with a much-needed win over Notre Dame in their last outing. The Heels are heavy favorites going into this game and you can find my Syracuse vs North Carolina prediction below.
Our Syracuse vs North Carolina Pick
Pick: North Carolina -11.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Date & Time: Monday, February 2, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Home court advantage: North Carolina is 12-0 at the Smith Center and 17-4 overall, while Syracuse is 12-9 and 2-2 in true road games. Syracuse notoriously does not schedule many true road games in non-conference play and a lack of experience in hostile environments could hurt their young roster in this matchup.
Star power: UNC freshman forward Caleb Wilson averages 20 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, anchoring a front line that also features 7-footer Henri Veesaar. Syracuse is led by J.J. Starling as a key shot maker, who enters this game with a team-high 12 points per game. It will take a huge performance from someone on the Syracuse roster to help them keep up with the Tar Heels in this one.
Form check: Syracuse snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Notre Dame 86-72 on Saturday, shooting 57% from the field and 40% from three. UNC recently logged a quality road result at Virginia and followed that up with a win at Georgia Tech on Saturday for their third straight victory in ACC play.
North Carolina comes into this game in sixth place in the ACC standings, while Syracuse is 1.5 games behind the Heels. While UNC has a much better overall record than Syracuse, the conference records for these teams aren't all that different and the winner of this game will help their ACC tournament seeding immensely as this season wears on.
Rebounding gap: UNC is averaging 40 rebounds per game, which compares favorably to Syracuse’s 35.2 rebounds per contest. That could be a path to extra possessions and second-chance points for the Tar Heels.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
North Carolina is 18-7 all-time against Syracuse.
The Tar Heels have won four of the last five meetings between these programs.
North Carolina is 12-9 against the spread this season.
Syracuse is 10-12 against the spread going into this matchup.
The over is 12-10 in Syracuse games this season.
The under is 11-10 in North Carolina's games this year.
Syracuse vs North Carolina Model Projection
Score Projection: Syracuse 71 – North Carolina 85
Win Probability: Syracuse 25%, North Carolina 75%
Final Thoughts
North Carolina is playing better basketball than Syracuse lately and the Tar Heels should take advantage of the lack of meaningfull experience winning games on the road for this Syracuse roster. I'm going to lay the points with the Tar Heels here, as they should improve to 6-3 in ACC play when the final buzzer sounds at the Dean Dome on Monday.
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