The first round encounter in the 2026 NCAA men’s tournament between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Tennessee State Tigers on Friday is not expected to be a close game, to put it gently. Iowa State’s season was defined by consistency and quality wins in the tough Big 12, while Tennessee State rode Ohio Valley Conference success to its first NCAA berth since 1994. My preview breaks down the Tennessee State vs Iowa State matchup and offers actionable insight for those wagering on the game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65SHTEO1CGA
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Tennessee State Tigers @ Iowa State Cyclones
Date & Time: Friday, March 20, 2026
Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri
Key Storylines
Iowa State enters as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region after posting a 27‑7 record and climbing into the AP Top 10, bolstered by strong offensive and defensive efficiency throughout the season.
Tennessee State punched its ticket by winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, finishing 23‑9 and showing it can score in bunches in its league.
This is the first meeting between these programs in over a decade, and it comes on the biggest stage in the sport, the NCAA Tournament.
Key Players
Iowa State Cyclones
Milan Momcilovic: Team’s leading scorer at around 17 points per game, capable of heating up from deep and stretching defenses.
Joshua Jefferson: Complete forward with around 7.5 rebounds per contest and capable of contributing across the stat sheet, vital in both scoring and rebounding roles.
Tamin Lipsey: Veteran guard facilitating and creating looks, often leading the team in assists while providing defensive intensity.
Tennessee State Tigers
Aaron Nkrumah: One of the Tigers’ top scoring threats with around 17 points per game, necessary for TSU to keep pace offensively.
Jalen Pitre: Forward adding rim protection with blocks and helping on the glass, key for Tennessee State to compete inside.
Stat Comparison
Iowa State
Tennessee State
Points per game
81.8
80.5
Team Field Goal %
49%
46%
Rebounds per game
35.6
38.0
Assists per game
17.2
13.2
Betting Trends
Iowa State is 20-13-1 against the spread this season.
Tennessee State is 18-10-1 against the spread entering March Madness.
The under is 19-15 in Iowa State games this season.
The under is 16-13 in games featuring Tennessee State.
Iowa State vs Tennessee State Pick & Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa State 89 – Tennessee State 67 ATS PRO
Pick: Tennessee State +25.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2 out of 5 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Iowa State 88%, Tennessee State 12% ATS PRO
Considering the strength of schedule, talent disparity, and statistical profiles, Iowa State is the clear choice to advance. But I'm not sure that the Cyclones are going to be able to cover a spread quite this large. The Cyclones are clearly the better team, but they could very well take their foot off the gas in a lopsided game late, while a shooting performance even slightly below their usual standard would make it tough for them to win by over 25 points in the opening round.
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