The Texas Longhorns and the Duke Blue Devils will face off in college basketball action on Tuesday night at Spectrum Center in Charlotte. Duke is the favorite in this matchup between power conference programs, as they look to get off to a strong start in their first game since Cooper Flagg's departure for the NBA. Before tip-off from Charlotte, continue reading to get my Texas vs Duke prediction for this contest.
Duke returns after a 35-4 season in which it was among the nation’s elite teams on both ends of the floor. They bring in a highly-touted freshman class that is headlined by Cameron Boozer. They enter the season ranked in the AP Top 10 and highly-ranked in advanced metrics.
Texas finished 19-16 last year and underwent a coaching change with Sean Miller arriving to rebuild the Longhorns’ identity. The Longhorns have veteran guards such as Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark. Big men Lassina Traore and Matas Vokietaitis are sidelined with foot and ankle issues, which raises concerns about Texas’ rim protection and rebounding early on.
This game is technically at a neutral site, but Charlotte is just a short drive from Durham. Duke’s fan base is strong and it should feel like a home game for the Blue Devils, minus the students going ballistic right near the court. That should give the Blue Devils a boost if this game manages to stay close down the stretch tonight.
Duke is 5-0 all-time against Texas going into this game. But college basketball programs change so much from year to year right now, let alone over the course of the history of two programs. There isn't a ton to take from the head-to-head history of these teams, as these teams have not played each other since 2017.
Score Projection: Duke 83 – Texas 77
Win Probability: Duke 80% / Texas 20%
Duke should be able to win in what will feel like a home game for them despite the neutral-site designation. But I am going to take the points with Texas in this contest. They have some experience in the backcourt that should allow them to hang with a Duke team that will be relying on a ton of freshmen. Those freshmen are talented, but some early growing pains could help keep this game within a couple of possessions.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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