The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-17) make the trip to Boone to face the Appalachian State Mountaineers (12-9) on Friday afternoon. This is the second game of a back-to-back for both of these programs after the schedules for both teams were moved around due to impending weather issues. Before tip-off from North Carolina, you can keep reading to find my UL Monroe vs App State prediction right here.
Our UL Monroe vs App State Pick
Pick: Appalachian State -14.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
Matchup: UL Monroe Warhawks @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
Date & Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Venue: George M. Holmes Convocation Center, Boone, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Warhawks’ struggles: UL Monroe has won just three games this season and owns an 0-9 mark in Sun Belt play. They are last in offensive and defensive efficiency in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot high percentages inside and from distance. They gave up 115 points against Marshall on Thursday and have to travel to play this game on short rest, which could cause them even more problems here.
Mountaineers’ steadiness: Appalachian State is just above .500 in conference play at 5-4 and they defeated the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 72-58 on Thursday afternoon. Their defense has been notably strong, holding opponents under 70 points per game this season. This game is a great chance for App State to get a win against a struggling opponent to move two games above .500 in the Sun Belt.
Rest and recent form: Both squads have played just one day prior to this contest, but ULM’s difficulties on the road could be a huge problem for them on short rest. The Warhawks are 0-10 on the road this season and it's hard to see them snapping their 10-game losing streak in this contest.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings: Appalachian State is 8-5 all-time against UL Monroe. The Mountaineers have won the last five games between these programs.
Against the spread (ATS): UL Monroe is 9-9 against the spread going into this matchup. App State enters Friday afternoon at 11-7-1 against the spread for the year.
Over/Under: UL Monroe has gone over the total in 14 of their first 18 games this season. The under is 11-8 in App State's games so far this year.
Home/Road splits: Appalachian State performs significantly better at home, entering this game with a 7-3 record on their home floor. The Warhawks struggle on the road, coming into this matchup without a win away from home.
UL Monroe vs App State Model Projection
Score Projection: UL Monroe 62 – Appalachian State 80
Win Probability: UL Monroe 12%, Appalachian State 88%
Final Thoughts
Appalachian State is strongly favored in this Sun Belt matchup, and it's hard to justify going any other direction than laying the points with the Mountaineers here. UL Monroe isn't likely to give up triple digits again in this game, but they are not expected to play enough defense to be competitive here, as I'll lay the points with App State in this Sun Belt matinee.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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