Friday night’s Mountain West contest between the UNLV Rebels and the Colorado State Rams features two teams trying to stay within striking distance of the leaders in the MWC early in conference play. Colorado State has a stronger overall record at 10-5 compared with UNLV’s 7-7 mark, but the Rebels are off to a better start in conference play and will try to keep it that way with a win on the road here. Before tip-off from Fort Collins, you will find my UNLV vs Colorado State prediction right here.
Pick: | UNLV +7.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Colorado State’s season has been solid overall, despite a recent 80-70 loss at home against New Mexico that dropped the Rams to 1-3 in Mountain West play. Augustinas Kiudulas led Colorado State in that game with 20 points, showing his offensive firepower even in defeat.
The Rams possess one of the stronger field goal percentages in the MWC and have been efficient from deep, averaging over 10 made three-pointers per game. Colorado State’s 6-3 home record indicates that they are tougher to beat on their own floor, and they will hope to clamp down defensively to limit UNLV’s scoring chances and reverse their rough start in conference play.
UNLV enters this game having scored an average of just under 80 points per game this season, with five players averaging at least 9 points per outing. They are led by Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who averages 16.4 points per game. However, their recent performance in Laramie against Wyoming saw them held to just 66 points and they will try to rebound from that showing here. The Rebels have a 2-1 record in conference play so far. Turnovers and defensive rebounding will be keys for UNLV to stay competitive, but their inconsistency on the road and shaky defensive performances pose hurdles.
Score Projection: Colorado State 83 – UNLV 78
Win Probability: Colorado State 68%, UNLV 32%
Colorado State should be able to secure a win in this matchup on their home floor to stop the bleeding during what has been a tough go of things in the Mountain West. But I'm taking the points with UNLV in this matchup, as they have just enough offensive weapons to keep this contest within a few possessions on the road.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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