The USC Trojans travel to Carver-Hawkeye Arena to face the Iowa Hawkeyes on Wednesday night, in a game that has significant implications for both teams’ Big Ten seasons. Both teams have been mediocre in the Big Ten so far this season, but one of them will get an important win here as they look to climb the conference standings. Find out who I think that will be below, as I make my USC vs Iowa prediction in college basketball.
Our USC vs Iowa Pick
Pick:
USC +9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: USC Trojans @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Date & Time: January 28, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa
Broadcast: Big Ten Network
Key Storylines
Iowa Hawkeyes have compiled a 14-5 record and are strong at home with a 10-1 record at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The defense of the Hawkeyes has been a strength, holding teams to one of the lowest scoring averages in the country at 62.4 points per game. Iowa also recently posted a 68-62 victory over Rutgers.
USC (15-5) is coming off a close 73-71 win over Wisconsin, led by a 29-point effort from Chad Baker-Mazara. That offensive output was a boost for the Trojans, but USC is still working through Big Ten inconsistency with a 4-5 conference record. USC’s offense is potent on many nights, but its defense has struggled at times, giving up 75.5 points per game.
USC’s Rodney Rice is out for the season due to a shoulder injury, leaving even more scoring responsibility on players like Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar. Iowa has no major reported injuries as it prepares for this home tilt.
Iowa comes into this matchup with two straight wins. They defeated Rutgers at home and Indiana on the road during that stretch. They will try to grab a third straight win here, while USC looks for a second straight victory.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
USC won the lone meeting all-time between these teams last season in California.
The Trojans are 10-9 against the spread going into this matchup.
The Hawkeyes are 13-6 against the spread entering Wednesday night.
The Hawkeyes have gone over the total in 10 of their first 19 games.
The under is 10-9 in USC's games this year.
USC vs Iowa Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa 79 – USC 72 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Iowa 78%, USC 22% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Iowa should be able to win this game on its home floor. With that said, I'm taking the points with the USC Trojans on the road. The Trojans are led by a player with significant Big Ten experience in Baker-Mazara, who helped them prove that they can win outright on the road as a big underdog in conference play last time out. While I don't think the Trojans will win outright again here, they should keep this game within a few possessions and cover the number.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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