Madison Square Garden hosts a rematch in the Big East on Monday, as Xavier visits St. John’s. St. John’s just authored its signature win of the season over UConn and enters 18-5 overall with an 11-1 conference mark, while Xavier arrives at 12-11 and 4-8 in league play. With the Red Storm winning at Xavier 88-83 on January 24, the Johnnies are heavy favorites going into this contest. Here, I break it all down and give you my Xavier vs St. John's prediction in college basketball.
Our Xavier vs St. John’s Pick
Pick: St. John’s -14.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Xavier Musketeers @ St. John’s Red Storm
Date & Time: Monday, February 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
St. John’s is 18-5 and 11-1 in Big East play, fresh off an 81-72 win over No. 3 UConn at Madison Square Garden. Xavier is 12-11 and 4-8 in the league, coming off a 92-60 defeat at UConn after defeating DePaul 68-66.
Last meeting: On January 24, St. John’s erased a 16-point second-half deficit to win 88-83 in Cincinnati. The Red Storm closed that game at roughly -8.5 and failed to cover the spread, but they got the win and that's all that St. John's would have cared about in that setting.
Star power: Xavier’s Tre Carroll leads the Musketeers at 17.9 points per game. St. John’s centerpiece Zuby Ejiofor averages 15.9 points and 7.6 rebounds and just posted a 21-10-7 line in the UConn win. Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell supply additional two-way play for the Red Storm.
St. John's enters this game a half-game behind UConn in the Big East standings. That makes this a massive game for the Red Storm and a massive opportunity as they try to catch up to the Huskies. Winning games like this one could help propel St. John's to the top of the Big East standings and help them get a better seed in the Big East tournament in about a month.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings
Jan 24, 2026: St. John’s 88, Xavier 83 at Cintas Center.
Jan 22, 2025: St. John’s 79, Xavier 71 in OT at Madison Square Garden.
Jan 7, 2025: St. John’s 82, Xavier 72 at Cintas Center.
ATS and O/U records
St. John's is 13-8-1 against the spread this season and the under is 12-10 in their games this season.
Xavier is 11-12 against the spread this year and 16-7 to the over.
Home/road splits
St. John’s: 11-2 at home this season and their defensive rating improves markedly at MSG.
Xavier: 1-6 on the road. The Musketeers' offense dips outside Cincinnati and late-game turnovers have spiked in true road spots.
Xavier vs St. John’s Model Projection
Score Projection: Xavier 72 – St. John’s 88
Win Probability: Xavier 25%, St. John’s 75%
Final Thoughts
St. John's should be able to roll in this game on their home floor to pull even with UConn in the Big East standings. The Red Storm have a huge advantage on the defensive end of the floor and I expect Ejiofor to dominate on both ends against an overmatched Xavier team. I'll lay the points with the hosts in this contest from Manhattan.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
