Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Mayo Bowl Prediction - 1/2/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
In one of the final collegiate gridiron matchups of the bowl season, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) will meet for a Friday night showdown in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. This contest from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte pits an ACC squad that surged late in the season against a struggling SEC representative looking to cap its season on a high note. Before kickoff from Charlotte, you'll find my Wake Forest vs Mississippi State prediction below.
Pick: | Mississippi State -3 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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The Demon Deacons concluded their regular season at 8-4, highlighted by notable victories over Virginia and SMU. Wake Forest’s defense was a strength, finishing in the top 25 in many advanced metrics, while its offense struggled to consistently find rhythm. The Demon Deacons ranked in the lower half of FBS in offensive efficiency. The Wake Forest defense will try to lead them to one last win against a Mississippi State team whose quarterback situation could be a major question mark.
Mississippi State enters this bowl game having battled a brutal SEC schedule. The Bulldogs finished 5-7 but made it to bowl season due to bowl opt-outs from programs that got at least six wins. This group enters the Mayo Bowl with a schedule that featured competitive losses to the likes of Tennessee, Texas, and Florida.
Robby Ashford is the starting quarterback for Wake Forest. He enters this contest with 2,169 passing yards, 9 touchdown passes, and 7 interceptions. He threw an interception in each of his last two games during the regular season and will try to clean things up in this matchup.
Freshman dual-threat quarterback Kamario Taylor emerged late in the season for Mississippi State, posting a powerful performance in his last start with significant yardage both through the air and on the ground. But he still lacks experience compared to Blake Shapen, which could hold the Bulldogs back, as Shapen is confirmed to not be playing in this game.
Score Projection: Wake Forest 23 – Mississippi State 27
Win Probability: Wake Forest 42%, Mississippi State 58%
My take on the Mayo Bowl is that Mississippi State is better than their record would suggest heading into this game. The Bulldogs played a gauntlet of a schedule and should have an easier time against a middle of the pack ACC team in this game. I'll lay the points with Mississippi State, as they should close their season out on a high note in Charlotte.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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