RR vs SRH Prediction: Will Pat Cummins Return for the Super Saturday Rematch?
Updated July 9, 2026
Rajasthan Royals host Sunrisers Hyderabad at Sawai Mansingh Stadium on April 25 in the second game of Super Saturday, and RR are out for revenge.
SRH won the reverse fixture by 57 runs, but my model has RR at 52% given home advantage, the spin-friendly Jaipur surface, and the form of Jaiswal and Sooryavanshi at the top.
The caveat is Pat Cummins: his return to the SRH XI on this exact date has been planned for weeks, and a fully fit Cummins at the death changes SRH's bowling ceiling significantly. If he plays, the line moves closer to a coin flip.
Prediction: Rajasthan Royals win
Best Bet: RR ML (-145)
Quick take: Jaipur's spin-friendly surface and Bishnoi's middle-overs dominance give RR the edge, but monitor the Cummins availability news before locking in your bet.
Match | Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad |
|---|---|
Date | April 25, 2026 |
Venue | Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur |
Market Edge | +4.1% on RR -0.5 |
True SR Comparison | RR 141 vs SRH 158 Last 5 |
Best Bet | RR -0.5 -145 |
RR have won five of their seven games and are one of the two in-form sides of IPL 2026. Their home record at Jaipur gives them a structural advantage the market is respecting but not fully pricing. SRH's last three wins have been impressive, but all came on pace-friendly surfaces in Hyderabad. Jaipur is a different test.
Sawai Mansingh Stadium typically plays with good early pace and bounce for seamers in the Powerplay, transitioning into a surface that grips and turns in the middle overs. The longer square boundaries also suppress six-hitting frequency, which matters for SRH whose top-order scoring rate of 11.65 runs per over this season is the highest in the competition, built on expansive driving and square-hitting that play into shorter boundaries. At Jaipur's wider dimensions, that profile is slightly less devastating.
RR's bowling attack is built for exactly this surface. Ravi Bishnoi averages 12.66 with the ball this season, has taken 9 wickets at an economy of 8.76, and has been consistently dangerous in overs 11-16 where SRH's middle order takes over from Head and Abhishek. Jofra Archer provides a serious Powerplay threat, generating hard-length movement that is effective against SRH's aggressive top-order approach. He already has 5 Powerplay wickets this season and 11 wickets overall in IPL 2026.
In contrast, SRH's bowling without Cummins has leaned on Malinga's reverse swing and two debutants in Hinge and Sakib Hussain who are still being decoded by opposition batters. With Cummins returning, SRH's death bowling becomes genuinely competitive, adding the one weapon Kishan's side has been missing.
RR are expected to field the same XI that defeated LSG, with Sooryavanshi operating as the Impact Player sub. He has scored 254 runs in 7 innings at a strike rate of 220.87 and is the most explosive batting option in the tournament right now.
The Impact rule means RR can bring him in at the batting stage and retain their bowling balance, a significant tactical flexibility edge. Shimron Hetmyer returns to the predicted XI after being rested against SRH in the reverse fixture, giving RR more middle-order power.
For SRH, the headline is Pat Cummins. He targeted April 25 in Jaipur specifically as his return date after recovering from a lumbar bone stress injury that kept him out since last August. If he plays, SRH have an elite death-bowling weapon and their captain back. Ishan Kishan has led competently in Cummins' absence, but the bowling attack has been stretched in the final four overs. Liam Livingstone remains an Impact bench option.
RR C: Riyan Parag
VS Sawai Mansingh · Apr 25
SRH C: Ishan Kishan
Rajasthan Royals
Sunrisers Hyderabad
1 Yashasvi Jaiswal
BAT
2 Dhruv Jurel
WK
3 Riyan Parag (c)
BAT
4 Shimron Hetmyer
BAT
5 Donovan Ferreira
BAT
6 Ravindra Jadeja
ALL
7 Jofra Archer
ALL
8 Nandre Burger
BOWL
9 Ravi Bishnoi
BOWL
10 Brijesh Sharma
BOWL
11 Sandeep Sharma
BOWL
1 Abhishek Sharma
BAT
2 Travis Head
BAT
3 Ishan Kishan (c)
WK
4 H. Klaasen
BAT
5 Salil Arora
ALL
6 Aniket Verma
BAT
7 Nitish KR
ALL
8 Pat Cummins*
BOWL
9 Harsh Dubey
BOWL
10 Eshan Malinga
BOWL
11 Shivang Kumar
BOWL
RR Impact Options
V. Sooryavanshi (IMP)
Shimron Hetmyer
Ravi Singh
Shubham Dubey
Brijesh Sharma
SRH Impact Options
Liam Livingstone
Praful Hinge
Sakib Hussain
Shivam Mavi
Harshal Patel
*Cummins return subject to confirmation · IPL 2026 Match 36 ATS.io
Market | Bookie Odds (Avg) | Implied Prob. | Model (Fair Price) | Model Prob. | Value Edge |
Rajasthan Royals ML | -145 | 59.2% | -170 | 63.3% | +4.1% |
SRH ML | +110 | 47.6% | +130 | 43.5% | -4.1% |
Total Runs Over 190.5 | -110 | 52.4% | -125 | 55.6% | +3.2% |
Top RR Bowler (Bishnoi) | -115 | 53.5% | -140 | 58.3% | +4.8% |
This is a close match between two of the best-performing sides in IPL 2026. RR's home advantage and the Jaipur surface favor their bowling attack, particularly Bishnoi in the middle overs. SRH's batting firepower means no total is ever safe against them, but the wider boundaries and spin-friendly conditions are a leveler.
RR Moneyline at -145 is the play, but the Cummins situation changes the calculus. Check the toss and team announcements before settling on a line. The best secondary market is Over 190.5 total runs, reflecting both teams' batting quality on a flat early surface before spin takes hold.
Who is the favorite?
Rajasthan Royals at around -145. SRH are +110.
Is Pat Cummins playing?
He targeted April 25 as his return date. Confirmation expected in the team announcement roughly 30 minutes before toss. If he plays, SRH's bowling becomes significantly stronger.
Who captains each side?
Riyan Parag captains RR; Ishan Kishan captains SRH, but Cummins will take over if he returns to the lineup
What is the pitch like at Jaipur?
Pace and bounce early for seamers, transitioning to a surface that favors spinners in the middle overs. Longer square boundaries than SRH's home ground, which slightly constrains their six-hitting profile.
What is the best value bet?
RR ML. Monitor Cummins' availability before placing.
What are the best player props?
Ravi Bishnoi Top RR Bowler at -115 is the most bankable prop. Sooryavanshi Top RR Batter at +130 offers value if he features as the Impact sub.
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