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TENNIS
Khachanov is the more live underdog than the pricing indicates because this matchup is unlikely to be decided by one player consistently dominating return games. Both men are tall, first-strike oriented baseliners, but Khachanov has the cleaner path to forcing holds and pushing the match into high-leverage service games. That kind of profile is exactly where an underdog can outperform market expectation, especially in a semifinal where a short run of points can swing a set.
Zverev’s route to this round has required plenty of time on court, and the match reports from New York show he has had to manage several demanding situations rather than cruising through the event. Khachanov, meanwhile, has played with enough composure to survive a tough quarterfinal path and still arrive with credible form on the surface. The combination of Khachanov’s serving reliability and Zverev’s recent workload makes the favorite less secure than a standard ranking-based read would suggest.
Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head series 6-3.
Khachanov is the value side here, with the underdog projection built on serve strength, a workable hard-court matchup, and the expectation that Zverev’s price is inflated by reputation and ranking. The projected winner is Karen Khachanov in four sets, with a total of 40 games, which fits a competitive semifinal that turns on a few big service moments rather than a one-sided favorite win.
