Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Paul Skenes Takes the Mound Against Chicago
Updated July 9, 2026
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates close out a four-game set Thursday night at PNC Park. Chicago finally snapped its 10-game losing skid with a 10-4 win on Wednesday, but this matchup presents a much different challenge with Paul Skenes starting for the Pirates. Skenes has been one of the National League’s most reliable starters, while the Cubs hand the ball to Colin Rea, who has struggled to limit traffic on the bases during May. Here, I break down this NL Central matchup and make my Cubs vs Pirates prediction on the diamond.
Skenes has the clear edge in this matchup. The Pirates right-hander continues to overpower hitters with elite velocity and command, posting a sharp 0.82 WHIP through 60 innings. He has walked only nine batters all season and consistently works deep into games, which reduces pressure on the Pittsburgh bullpen. Skenes has also been effective at PNC Park, where his fastball plays even better in the spacious environment.
Rea has delivered mixed results for Chicago. He enters with a 4-3 record, though his numbers suggest risk against an improving Pirates lineup. Rea has surrendered eight home runs already and has not generated enough swings and misses, recording only 44 strikeouts in 54 innings. Pittsburgh’s left-handed power bats, especially Lowe and Reynolds, are positioned well in this matchup.
The Cubs showed life on Wednesday, but this is still a difficult spot against one of baseball’s top young starters. Skenes has consistently handled lineups with far more depth than Chicago’s current version, and Pittsburgh owns advantages in starting pitching, bullpen stability, and recent offensive production. Chicago’s lineup can create traffic on the bases, though converting those chances against Skenes is another issue entirely. I'll take the Pirates to win this contest at home on Thursday night.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
