The New York Mets head into Chicago looking to stop a troubling early-season slide as they open a series against the Chicago Cubs on Friday. New York enters the day at 7-12 and has dropped eight games in a row, with offensive struggles continuing to limit their upside. Chicago, sitting at 9-9, has been more stable and returns home to Wrigley Field with a chance to improve on their start. Here, I break down this important National League matchup and make my Mets vs Cubs prediction in the betting markets.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
Date & Time: Friday, April 17, 2026, 6:20 PM
Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga vs Edward Cabrera
Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
The Mets enter with a 7-12 record and have gone 2-8 over their last 10 games.
Chicago sits at 9-9 and has played .500 baseball despite having high expectations to begin this year.
New York is averaging just 3.4 runs per game, ranking near the bottom of the league.
The Cubs are producing 5.2 runs per game, giving them a clear offensive edge
Edward Cabrera: 1-0, 1.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 13 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.
Senga has allowed 17 hits already and has struggled with command early in the year.
Cabrera has limited opponents to just 10 hits and has yet to allow a home run.
Key Players
Francisco Alvarez leads the Mets with 4 home runs and leads them in batting average at .271.
Bo Bichette has driven in 9 runs for New York to lead them in that category.
Dansby Swanson has 4 home runs for Chicago to lead them in long balls.
Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 18 RBI and a .324 average.
Recent Team Streaks
The Mets enter this game on an eight-game losing streak.
The Cubs have won two straight games and three of their last four.
Betting Trends & H2H
This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams.
The under is 9-8-2 in Mets games this year.
The Cubs are 11-6-1 to the over to begin this season.
Mets vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: New York Mets 4 - Chicago Cubs 6
Win Probability: New York Mets 42%, Chicago Cubs 58%
The biggest separator in this game is the starting pitching matchup combined with current offensive output. Kodai Senga has yet to find consistency, and his elevated WHIP suggests traffic on the bases will continue to be an issue. Against a Cubs lineup producing over 5 runs per game, that is a risky combination. Edward Cabrera, meanwhile, has been far more efficient, limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. Even with some control issues, his ability to miss barrels gives Chicago the upper hand early. I'll take the Cubs to get the win at home here and for them to get back above .500 for the season.
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