New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction - 9/26/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The New York Mets will head into loanDepot Park to take on the Miami Marlins on Friday night. This is the first game of a very important three-game series for New York, as they look to hold onto the final Wild Card spot in the National League. New York is favored on the road here but will need to overcome a starting pitcher with a high ceiling for Miami. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Mets vs Marlins prediction for Friday night.
This game carries immense weight for New York. Their postseason hopes hinge on each win in this final series. After a gutsy 8–5 victory over the Cubs, the Mets have not surrendered their grip on the final NL Wild Card spot. They lead the Cincinnati Reds by one game in the race for that playoff berth. Miami’s season is over, but the club is still playing for pride and to potentially play spoiler against their division rivals here.
The Mets will hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, a relatively untested arm. He is 0–1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 16.0 innings pitched. He is chasing his first major league win, and command will be key. On the Marlins’ side is Sandy Alcántara. Alcantara enters with a 10–12 record and 5.48 ERA across 167.2 innings. His strikeout totals are lower than he used to put up. But Alcantara can finish this season strong with a good start against the Mets tonight.
The Mets have been in “do or die” mode all September long and just came off a series win over the Cubs to preserve their Wild Card lead. New York has won two of its last three games. The Marlins have lost two games in a row to the Philadelphia Phillies entering this game. Miami will try to avoid a third straight loss at the hands of a division rival tonight.
Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
Juan Soto | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
Pete Alonso | Total bases | Under 1.5 |
Sandy Alcántara | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Score Projection: Mets 4 – Marlins 5
Win Probability: Marlins 54%, Mets 46%
The Mets are favored and their need to win the rest of their games is a big reason for that designation. But New York is sending a pitcher to the mound who has yet to record a major league win. I think there is some value on the home underdog in this division matchup and I will take the Marlins to grab a win that will send the Mets out of Wild Card position if the Reds win tonight.
