The latest chapter of the rivalry between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox continues Thursday night at Fenway Park, with New York in firm control of their current series. After back-to-back wins by scores of 4-0 and 4-1, the Yankees enter Game 3 in strong form while Boston looks to halt a slide that has exposed issues all over the field for them. Here, I break down Yankees vs Red Sox and make my prediction for the finale of their first series in 2026.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Pick
Pick: Yankees -1.5
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Date & Time: Thursday, April 23, 2026, 6:10 PM
Starting Pitchers: Cam Schlittler vs Undecided
Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
The Yankees have won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-1.
Boston has dropped four of its last five games, while the Yankees have won five straight.
New York's pitching has allowed just one run across the series so far.
Cam Schlittler continues to emerge as a breakout starter with elite early-season numbers, as he gets the ball for the Yankees in this matchup.
Pitching Matchup
Cam Schlittler enters with a 2-1 record, 1.95 ERA, and 0.76 WHIP across 27.2 innings.
He has recorded 36 strikeouts against just 3 walks and has not allowed a home run so far in 2026.
Boston has yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this contest.
No matter who ends up starting this game for Boston, they will need their bullpen to handle a decent workload without too much damage.
Key Players
Aaron Judge leads New York with 9 home runs and he has contributed 16 RBI as well.
Ben Rice is hitting above .314 with 18 RBI, leading the Yankees in both of those categories.
Amed Rosario drove in all 4 runs in the previous game.
Trevor Story leads Boston with 17 RBI despite a low batting average of .192.
Wilyer Abreu has been one of Boston’s most consistent hitters with an average of .281.
Betting Trends & H2H
The Yankees are 2-0 against the Red Sox so far this season.
The under has hit in both games between these teams in this series.
The under is 13-9-2 in games involving the Yankees this season.
Boston is 12-12 in the over/under market for the year.
Yankees vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 5 - Red Sox 3
Win Probability: Yankees 58%, Red Sox 42%
The numbers and recent form point in one direction for this game. New York holds clear advantages in pitching, lineup consistency, and recent results. Schlittler has been dominant through the early part of the season, limiting base runners and missing bats at a high rate. Against a Boston lineup that has struggled to string together quality at bats, he is well-positioned to deliver another strong outing.
Expect Boston to show some fight at home, but the gap in pitching reliability and current performance is too wide to overlook here. I will back the Yankees to complete the sweep and cover the runline at Fenway.
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