San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Game 1 Prediction - 9/30/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will face off in Game 1 of their National League Wild Card series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. The Cubs claimed the top Wild Card spot and home-field advantage in this best-of-three series. They will look to get off to a strong start to their postseason in this matchup. Before first pitch from Chicago, continue reading to get my Cubs vs Padres Game 1 prediction.
Nick Pivetta, the Padres’ likely Game 1 starter, enjoyed an excellent season overall. He went 13-5 and had a 2.87 ERA. But his splits are a concern coming into the postseason. On the road in 2025, he posted a an ERA of 3.55, versus an elite home ERA of 2.36. He’s outperformed his expected metrics this year but is a better pitcher at home than on the road.
Matthew Boyd has been a dependable workhorse for the Cubs. He enters with a 14-8 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s also been particularly strong in starts at Wrigley, posting a 2.51 home ERA and a 3.90 ERA on the road.
Both teams are on three-game winning streaks heading into the postseason. The Cubs closed strong with a sweep of the Cardinals, including a game in which Seiya Suzuki launched a grand slam, helping them clinch the No. 1 Wild Card spot. The Padres swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in their final series of the regular season.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nick Pivetta | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Matthew Boyd | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Seiya Suzuki | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Score Projection: Cubs 4 – Padres 2
Win Probability: Cubs 55%, Padres 45%
This Game 1 feels like a prime spot to back Chicago. Boyd’s home numbers and Pivetta's road splits should give the Cubs the pitching edge in this contest. Chicago should take the lead in the early stages and hold onto it down the stretch. I'll go with the Cubs to win a low-scoring series opener that will give them two chances to advance to the NLDS if they need it.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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