The Washington Nationals head to Pittsburgh on Monday night riding a surge of confidence after a road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers, while the Pirates return home looking to steady their form against a club that has quietly produced one of the more efficient offenses in the National League through the opening weeks. Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes takes the mound for this game, looking to improve on a slow start to the year, and I break down whether or not that will happen below with my Nationals vs Pirates predictions.
Nationals vs Pirates Pick
Pick: Nationals ML
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Date & Time: Monday, April 13, 2026, 6:40 PM
Starting Pitchers: Cade Cavalli vs Paul Skenes
Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
The Nationals enter at 7-8 after sweeping Milwaukee, scoring 18 runs over their last three games
The Pirates sit at 9-6 and lead their division despite dropping a close game Sunday. They took two out of three games against the Chicago Cubs in their most recent series.
Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite around -225 on the moneyline, while Washington sits near +185. This has a lot to do with Paul Skenes being on the mound for the Pirates in this contest.
Pitching Matchup
Cade Cavalli has opened the season with a 2.51 ERA across 14.1 innings, allowing no home runs but issuing 9 walks. His control needs to be on point to keep up with Skenes in this matchup.
Paul Skenes is 2-1 with a 5.25 ERA, though his strikeout ability remains strong with 12 punchouts in 12 innings. This has been a slow start for Skenes relative to his standards and he will try to bring that ERA down in this contest.
Key Players
James Wood leads Washington with 5 home runs and continues to drive power production for his team.
CJ Abrams has 16 RBI and remains the engine of the Nationals lineup, helping them with timely hits.
Oneil Cruz is hitting above .330 with 5 home runs and 13 RBI for Pittsburgh early in the year.
Ryan O'Hearn is batting .333 with a .419 OBP, providing steady middle-order production for the Pirates.
Recent Team Streaks
The Nationals have won 3 straight games and are 3-2 in their last 5.
The Pirates are also 3-2 in their last 5, but coming off a one-run loss.
Washington has scored 89 runs this season compared to Pittsburgh’s 66.
Betting Trends & H2H
This is the first of seven games this season between the Nationals and Pirates.
The Pirates are 9-6 to the over through their first 15 games of the season.
Washington is 11-4 to the over going into Monday night's game.
Nationals vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Washington Nationals 4 - Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Win Probability: Washington Nationals 50%, Pittsburgh Pirates 50%
Washington’s recent sweep deserves attention, especially given how efficiently the lineup has produced runs. On the other side, Skenes has not posted dominant numbers yet, but his strikeout rate and underlying profile suggest improvement is coming. I think this is going to be a very close game, but I give a slight edge to the Nationals, who appear stronger than the Pirates in every area except for the presence of Skenes on the mound.
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