UFC Best Bets Tonight: UFC 329 Picks For 7/11/26
Updated 09 Jul, 2026
This week's UFC action comes from Las Vegas, as UFC 329 will be headlined by a welterweight fight between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. On this card from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during International Fight Week, there are several betting angles that we think could have value, including a main event bet that you won't want to miss. Here, you can find our best UFC bets this week before this weekend's action begins.
Fight | Best Bet |
|---|---|
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway | Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ (-120) |
Our best bet for McGregor vs Holloway II at UFC 329 is for Max Holloway to get a win by knockout. McGregor is a skilled knockout artist that has put some of the biggest names in the sport out in the past. But he hasn't fought in five years and that kind of rust is going to hurt him against a fighter in Holloway who has faced some of the top competition in the sport while McGregor was out of commission.
My expectation is for McGregor to get off to a decent start in this fight, before running out of gas. From there, Holloway should dominate in the final three rounds and ultimately secure a stoppage in the fourth or fifth round.
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For every UFC event, from the smallest UFC Las Vegas fight night cards to the marquee events held around the world, we will provide our expert UFC picks. Those picks can be found above each week. Those MMA picks will feature a combination of main event bouts and undercard fights, both from the main card and prelims. For more information on how we arrive at our UFC picks and what betting markets we utilize, you can continue reading.
When making MMA picks, there are is a lot to think about, as this sport is vastly different than most from a betting perspective. We see basketball teams play multiple times per week and football teams play weekly, for example. In UFC, a fighter may go years without a fight, which changes the way we have to handicap. Here are a few of the things we look at when making our UFC picks each week.
One huge component to each UFC pick that we make is the location where the fight is being held. This is not as much about any sort of home soil advantage, as a fighter from the USA will not have some kind of inherent advantage over an international fighter in a fight in Las Vegas or elsewhere in the USA. But rather the location of a fight can impact the octagon conditions that can have an impact on a fight.
For example, a fight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas will feature a smaller octagon than a fight at a larger venue where a bigger octagon is brought in for the event. A smaller octagon would benefit a competitor who likes to grapple, while a larger octagon will benefit someone who likes to fight at a distance.
They say that styles make fights, and that is more true in UFC than it is in boxing or most other combat sports. The key to successful UFC betting is to analyze the way that each competitor approaches fights and extrapolating that to the matchup in their next fight. Evaluating things like takedown defense when a competitor is set to fight a grappler, or striking when set to face a striker, is vital to making strong UFC picks.
Rematches for championships are becoming more and more common in UFC. That gives bettors some sort of frame of reference when making a UFC pick on those fights. Before placing a bet on a rematch, bettors can analyze those past UFC bouts and determine whether a result can be replicated, or if there was an outcome that is going to go a different way the next time around.
Here, you will see several types of UFC picks throughout the year. From betting on fights to simply claim a victory in a given fight to more intricate prop bets that focus on hyper-specific components of each bout, keep reading for a breakdown of the different betting markets that we look at when making our selections for each UFC event.
The most common type of UFC pick is the moneyline prediction. This type of bet allows bettors to wager on who the winner of an upcoming UFC fight will be. It does not matter how a win is earned, so long as a bettor correctly predicts who the winner is. With this market, bettors have to balance the chances of a combatant winning with the odds set by the sportsbooks for that fight.
Another common form of UFC pick is the over/under wager, which asks UFC bettors to predict how many rounds a bout will last. Sportsbooks will set a number of rounds for each UFC fight, with bettors able to wager on whether it will go over or under that number of rounds. There are often half-rounds included in these wagers, with a half-round consisting of 2:30 in the following round.
Prop bets are also a huge part of our UFC picks each week. Prop bets allow UFC bettors to make picks on very specific components of each UFC fight. These include betting on the method of victory in a fight, such as a knockout, submission, or decision. There is also the ability to wager on a UFC fight to go the distance or if one of the combatants will earn a finish before the end of the final round. These props often come at better odds than simply wagering on a winner on the moneyline.
For those who want to bet on more than just UFC, we have got you covered. Click on the below links to get our picks for sports that are not UFC, including football, basketball, and more.