Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Charles Oliveira will face Mateusz Gamrot in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. This lightweight bout is a big one in the division, with two top 10 lightweights trying to get an important win. Gamrot is stepping in on short notice to replace the injured Rafael Fiziev in a fight that is a pick 'em according to oddsmakers. Here, you can find my breakdown of this fight, including my Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot prediction.
Attribute | Charles Oliveira | Mateusz Gamrot |
|---|---|---|
Age | 35 | 34 |
Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
Reach | 74" | 70.5" |
Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
Record | 35-11-0 | 25-3-0 |
Charles Oliveira is known for his exceptional submission skills. He holds the record for the most finishes and submission victories in UFC history. But his recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria has raised questions about his durability, especially against opponents with strong striking abilities. Oliveira's grappling is always his most dangerous weapon. But his defense has been inconsistent against both strikes and takedowns. That could be a problem against someone as dangerous as Gamrot.
Mateusz Gamrot is stepping in to fight on short notice due to an injury to Rafael Fiziev. His wrestling is particularly impressive, with an average of 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown defense rate of 90%. Gamrot's striking is also solid and his ability to control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place will be incredibly important.
This fight is going to be an interesting test of both fighters' ability to control things on the ground. Gamrot is a wrestler by nature and will try to bend Oliveira to his will, while Oliveira will try to collect a quick submission by capitalizing on any mistakes made by Gamrot on the mat. I think that Gamrot will avoid making any mistakes that Oliveira can capitalize on and I will take Gamrot to come away with the win in this bout from Brazil.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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