Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes Prediction & Preview - 2/28/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Arena CDMX in Mexico City on Saturday, and one of the more intriguing main card fights will see flyweights Edgar Chairez and Felipe Bunes square off in a matchup that matters for both men’s momentum in the 125‑pound division. Both men have split their last four fights and they need to start grabbing wins in order to eventually move up in this division. Before the action begins in Mexico, you will find my breakdown of this fight below, including my Chairez vs Bunes prediction in the Octagon.
Pick: Edgar Chairez by submission ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Edgar Chairez | Felipe Bunes | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 30 | 36 |
Reach | 71" | 69" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 12‑6‑0 | 14‑8‑0 |
This flyweight clash blends two distinct approaches within the division. Chairez comes in with a dynamic offensive profile built around frenetic pace, frequent scrambles, and a finishing instinct that has translated to a number of stoppages at the UFC level. Across his pro career, Chairez has shown he can both strike and grapple, with victories by way of both knockouts and submissions, and he has yet to win a fight by decision in his career.
More importantly, his recent bouts against high‑level competition have sharpened his skills under pressure and helped him iron out some areas of his game that needed growth. Chairez’s willingness to push the pace and force action should serve him well against Bunes, particularly in front of a supportive crowd in Mexico City.
Bunes, meanwhile, enters as the seasoned veteran with nine submission wins and a solid background in Brazilian jiu‑jitsu. He has the capability to threaten Chairez on the mat and has rebounded from recent setbacks with sporadic success. Bunes’ takedown accuracy and wrestling consistency have been questioned, with recent statistics showing low takedown averages and sub‑optimal conversion rates. Against a younger, quicker opponent like Chairez, Bunes may have difficulty imposing his grappling early, which could allow Chairez to dictate where the fight takes place. But with nine career submission wins, Bunes is always a threat on the ground.
This should be a fight where both fighters try to win the battle on the mat. Both have seen the bulk of their fights win via submission and the fighter who can work their way into advantageous positions early can wear their opponent down and eventually claim a victory via stoppage.
From a betting perspective, Chairez holds the clear advantage due to his youth, pace, and finishing capability. Bunes’ submission pedigree is legitimate, but his wrestling numbers and takedown accuracy have lagged in the UFC, which could allow Chairez to keep the fight where he is most comfortable and productive. Expect Chairez to push a fast pace, force scrambles, and look for submission opportunities as each round winds down. Bunes may have moments in the grappling exchanges, but Chairez’s conditioning and offensive urgency make a submission win for the Mexican fighter the most likely outcome in my book.
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