Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett UFC 324 Prediction - 1/24/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will headline UFC 324 on Saturday night in a showdown for the interim UFC lightweight championship inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Gaethje is a veteran former interim champion known for his explosive striking and relentless pace. He meets Pimblett, the brash and improving Brit who has steamrolled his way up the lightweight rankings. Before these top-five lightweights face off for the interim crown, you will find my Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction below.
Pick: | Over 2.5 Rounds ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Justin Gaethje | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 37 | 31 |
Reach | 70" | 73" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 26-5 | 23-3 |
Gaethje’s career has been defined by high-octane striking and unforgiving leg kicks that wear down even elite opponents. A former interim champion and perennial top-five lightweight, he has proven his power with 20 knockouts among his 26 wins and a pace that often overwhelms his challengers. His recent win over Rafael Fiziev by decision showcased his ability to go the long haul, something he may have to do against a grinder in Pimblett.
Pimblett has risen rapidly within UFC. Riding a nine-fight win streak, including an undefeated 7-0 UFC run, he brings a dangerous combination of submission expertise and forward pressure. His black-belt level grappling and 10 career submission wins present a unique threat to Gaethje, who prefers to stand up and exchange strikes. Pimblett has yet to face a high-level opponent in their prime during his time in UFC. Gaethje's best days are also behind him, and "Paddy the Baddy" will try to take full advantage on Saturday night.
The fight shapes up as a clash of styles. Gaethje is a heavy hitter with punishing leg kicks and relentless boxing. He is going up against a submission artist who can drag opponents to the ground with ease. Gaethje’s takedown defense has been respectable, but Pimblett’s pace and creativity could create openings for him to control things on the ground. Should Pimblett secure top control early, Gaethje could be unable to impose his will on his feet.
This fight is going to come down to whether or not Gaethje can prevent Pimblett from getting him to the ground and keeping him there throughout this fight. I am expecting Pimblett to eventually impose his will and secure the takedowns needed to control and win this fight. But my best bet for this matchup is for the over to cash at 2.5 rounds. This five-round fight should at least see a fourth round, as I can't see Gaethje giving up during the early stages of what could be his last chance to earn UFC gold.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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