The Boston Celtics head to Atlanta on Saturday for an Eastern Conference showdown against the struggling Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena. The Celtics have worked their way to the top of the Atlantic Division despite injuries hurting their roster, while the Hawks have struggled in the wake of the Trae Young trade. Here, I take a closer look at both of these teams and make my Celtics vs Hawks prediction in the betting markets.
Our Celtics vs Hawks Pick
Pick:
Celtics -3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
Date & Time: January 17, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
The Celtics (25-15) are contending in a tight Eastern Conference and bring a high-powered offense and elite defense into Atlanta. Boston just snapped a two-game skid with an impressive 119-114 victory over the Miami Heat, led by a 39-point performance from Anfernee Simons and a strong showing from Jaylen Brown. Brown’s scoring has stabilized Boston’s offensive output amid roster fluctuations throughout the year.
Boston’s injury report is notable. Jayson Tatum remains out with an Achilles issue and Josh Minott is sidelined as well. Payton Pritchard is listed as doubtful, potentially placing more ball-handling and scoring responsibilities on Simons, Brown, and Derrick White. Boston still ranks among the league’s best teams in net efficiency, with a defense that limits opponents to 110.2 points per game.
The Hawks (20-23) are in the midst of a roster transformation, having recently traded Trae Young in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Though McCollum has put up solid scoring numbers off the bench, Atlanta’s overall performance has been inconsistent. The team is hampered by significant absences, including Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher. Atlanta has dropped two straight games and they will try to stop the bleeding tonight.
Atlanta’s home record has been underwhelming (7-11) and this is Atlanta's first game back home after a four-game road trip. Without a full complement of starters, Atlanta’s defense has struggled to slow high-caliber offenses like Boston’s.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first of four regular-season matchups between the Celtics and Hawks this year.
Boston is 22-18 against the spread going into this matchup.
The Hawks enter Saturday night with a record of 21-22 against the spread.
The under is 23-17 in Celtics games this season.
Atlanta is 22-21 to the over for the year.
Celtics vs Hawks Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston Celtics 118 – Atlanta Hawks 111 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Boston Celtics 67%, Atlanta Hawks 33% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Winning on the road in the NBA is never easy. But I do expect the Celtics to win and cover the spread on the road in this contest. Boston has worked its way to the top of the Atlantic Division and I expect them to keep trending in the right direction with a win over a banged-up Hawks squad.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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