The Boston Celtics (24-14) head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to face the Indiana Pacers (8-31) on Monday night. Boston enters this game dealing with injuries to key players while trying to stay among the Eastern Conference’s best teams. Indiana continues to struggle and sits near the bottom of the standings, though the Pacers have snapped a lengthy losing streak with two straight victories. Can the Celtics overcome their injuries to win on the road, or will the Pacers shock them in Indy? Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Celtics vs Pacers prediction.
Our Celtics vs Pacers Pick ATS PRO
Pick: | Celtics -5.5 |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
- Date & Time: Monday, January 12, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: Peacock
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Key Storylines
- Boston arrives in Indianapolis without Jayson Tatum, who remains out during his recovery from Achilles surgery, a season-long absence. Celtics star Jaylen Brown is listed as doubtful with low back spasms, meaning Boston could be down its leading scorer. Sam Hauser is questionable and Josh Minott remains out with an ankle injury.
- Indiana’s roster has been decimated by injuries, too. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and Bennedict Mathurin will not play due to a thumb injury. Andrew Nembhard is questionable with back soreness, and Obi Toppin and Isaiah Jackson are listed as out.
- Boston has lost two of its last three games and was held to one of its lowest scoring outputs of the season in a home loss to the Spurs on Saturday. Despite that and the potential absence of Jaylen Brown, the Celtics still have dangerous scorers like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard who will try to pick up the slack.
- Indiana has won two games in a row after a long losing streak and a home victory over Miami recently provided a much-needed confidence boost. The Pacers are still one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference and they will try to get back into the win column with a victory in this matchup from Indy.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Boston holds a 2-0 lead in the season series over Indiana, including a 140-122 win in December and a 103-95 home victory. The Celtics have won once at home and once on the road against the Pacers this year.
- The Celtics have won four of their last six meetings overall against the Pacers.
- Boston is 21-17 against the spread so far this season.
- Indiana is 20-19 against the spread going into this game.
- The under is 24-15 in Pacers games so far this season.
- Boston is 21-17 to the under going into Monday night's action.
Celtics vs Pacers Model Projection ATS PRO
Score Projection: Boston Celtics 118 – Indiana Pacers 105
Win Probability: Boston Celtics 82%, Indiana Pacers 18%
Final Thoughts ATS PRO
Boston might be a little short-handed for this game. But even if Jaylen Brown doesn't play, I still expect the Celtics to win and cover the spread in this contest. Expect players like White and Pritchard to step up if Brown is out and for the Celtics to cover the number while improving to 3-0 on the season against the struggling Pacers.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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