The Dallas Mavericks head into their Friday night game against the Minnesota Timberwolves mired in a long losing streak. Minnesota has been one of the more consistent clubs in the Western Conference this season, sitting with a strong record, while Dallas is struggling due to roster limitations that have hampered their competitiveness. Minnesota is a heavy home favorite here and I've got you covered with my Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction.
Date & Time: Friday, February 20, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
The Timberwolves boast one of the more productive offenses in the league and are well-positioned in the Western Conference standings, while Dallas is struggling with inconsistency and a nine-game losing streak.
Minnesota’s recent 133-109 win over the Portland Trail Blazers showcased their offensive capacity with big performances from their key stars, establishing them as a heavy favorite against Dallas in this spot.
The Mavericks are dealing with significant roster absences, with Cooper Flagg out and Kyrie Irving out for the season.
Key Players
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Leading Minnesota’s scoring attack, Edwards is averaging about 29.3 points per game and also contributes with rebounds and assists, making him a centerpiece of their offensive flow.
Julius Randle: Randle scored 41 points in Minnesota’s most recent outing, adding to the Wolves’ balanced attack this season.
Rudy Gobert: Anchoring the interior both offensively and defensively, Gobert contributes over 11 rebounds per game and consistently impacts the paint on the defensive end of the floor.
Donte DiVincenzo: A deadly perimeter threat, DiVincenzo averages over three made threes per contest, stretching defenses and creating room for Edwards and Randle to operate.
Mavericks
Naji Marshall: With around 15.1 points per game, Marshall is an impactful offensive player who will need to step up in Flagg's absence.
P.J. Washington: Washington contributes roughly 14.1 points and 7.0 rebounds, offering perimeter scoring and rebounding amidst Dallas’s lineup challenges.
Max Christie: A wing presence, Christie is making an impact with his three-point shooting and consistent scoring, giving Dallas needed floor spacing.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Timberwolves
Mavericks
Points per game
119.7
113.9
Points allowed per game
114.8
117.4
Team Field Goal %
48%
47%
Rebounds Per Game
44.8
44.7
Assists Per Game
26.5
25.1
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This season, Minnesota has handled Dallas in previous meetings, including a recent 118-105 victory that reinforced Minnesota’s superiority in this matchup.
Dallas is 23-31 against the spread this season.
Minnesota is not much better against the spread at 25-31 on the year.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Model Projection
Score Projection: Timberwolves 121 – Mavericks 106 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Timberwolves 78%, Mavericks 22% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
All signs point to a convincing Timberwolves home victory in this game. Minnesota’s offensive firepower, combined with Dallas’ roster issues and recent slide, makes the Wolves a strong play against the spread here. I'll lay the points with Minnesota, as the Mavs are poised to drop a 10th game in a row.
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