With the 2026 NBA season rolling into Martin Luther King Jr. Day action, the Dallas Mavericks will travel to New York to take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Mavericks have won three of their last four games and will try to stay hot here, while the Knicks are trying to halt a skid that has seen them lose eight of their last 10. Before tip-off on MLK Day, continue reading to get my Mavericks vs Knicks prediction on the court.
Our Mavericks vs Knicks Pick
Pick:
Mavericks +10.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks
Date & Time: Monday, January 19, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Broadcast: NBC/Peacock
Key Storylines
Injury impacts loom large for both teams in this game. The Mavericks are missing several rotation pieces, including Anthony Davis potentially for the rest of the season as left-hand surgery could be in his future. Daniel Gafford is out with an ankle issue, D’Angelo Russell is out due to illness, and P.J. Washington is sidelined as well. Rookie Cooper Flagg is questionable with an ankle sprain and may not suit up. These absences have strained Dallas’ depth and offensive cohesion.
The Knicks also have concerns, with Jalen Brunson questionable due to an ankle sprain and Josh Hart listed as uncertain. Brunson’s absence would be a blow, as the All-Star guard averages around 28 points and 6 assists per game, and New York is just 1-4 this season without him. Karl-Anthony Towns has been steady, contributing around 21 points and 11 rebounds, but he is less impactful without Brunson to play off of.
Dallas has shown flashes recently, winning its last two games with strong three-point shooting and balanced scoring, led by Klay Thompson and bench contributors. However, those victories came against inferior competition, and Dallas’ overall point differential and offensive efficiency rank in the lower half of the league. The Knicks are playing below their usual standard too, having stumbled in January and needing a win to stop the bleeding and start trending in the right direction again.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Knicks won 113-111 in Dallas in the first meeting between these teams this season.
New York is 21-22 against the spread so far this season.
Dallas is 19-24 against the spread going into Monday's play.
The over is 24-19 in games featuring the Knicks this year.
The under is 24-19 in Mavs games this season.
Mavericks vs Knicks Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas Mavericks 114 – New York Knicks 119 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks 23%, New York Knicks 77% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
The Knicks should get a win to put a halt to their January swoon. But I'm going to take the points with the Mavericks, as they should keep this contest inside of single-digits against a Knicks team that has struggled to put together 48 minutes of solid basketball since 2026 started.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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